中国光伏行业_发改委拟监管 “内卷式” 竞争，竞争态势利好光伏板块-China Solar Sector_ NDRC Revising Price Law to Regulate _Involutionary_ Competition – Positive for Solar Sector

Summary of the China Solar Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Solar Sector, particularly the implications of the Draft Amendment to the Price Law issued by the NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation on July 24, 2025, which aims to regulate "involutionary" competition in the market [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Revised Low-Price Dumping Definition: - The Draft Amendment clarifies that business operators are prohibited from engaging in dumping sales below cost prices to gain market dominance [2]. - This change is expected to standardize market pricing and prevent unfair competition, which has been prevalent in the solar sector [1]. 2. Simplified Law Enforcement Procedure: - The amendment simplifies the process for identifying illegal low-price dumping, allowing for more effective enforcement of the Price Law [3]. - This is anticipated to enhance the regulatory environment for solar companies, potentially stabilizing prices in the sector [1]. 3. Positive Impact on Solar Sector: - The amendment is viewed positively for the solar sector, as many solar products have been sold below cost since the second half of 2024 [1]. - Companies like GCL Technology, Tongwei, and Daqo Energy are expected to benefit from higher average selling prices (ASP) and potential capacity consolidation [1]. 4. Downstream Segments: - Downstream segments such as solar glass, wafers, and solar cell manufacturers are also likely to benefit from the regulatory changes [1]. - The focus is on cost leaders within each segment to capitalize on the improved pricing environment [1]. Company Valuations and Risks 1. Daqo New Energy: - Target price set at US$27.00 based on DCF valuation, with a WACC of 11.7% [9]. - Risks include slower-than-expected polysilicon capacity reduction and higher power costs [10]. 2. GCL Technology: - Target price set at HK$1.70, with a WACC of 9.1% [11]. - Similar risks as Daqo, including polysilicon demand fluctuations [12]. 3. Tongwei: - Target price set at Rmb25.00/share, with a WACC of 9.7% [13]. - Risks include potential government support for less efficient solar equipment makers [14]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of regulatory changes in shaping the competitive landscape of the solar industry in China. - The focus on preventing dumping practices is expected to lead to a healthier market environment, benefiting both upstream and downstream players in the solar supply chain [1][2][3].