化工_中国 6 月贸易；供给侧改革2.0-Chem Snapshot_ China‘s June Trade; Supply-Side Reforms (SSR) 2.0

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the chemical industry in China, focusing on trade dynamics, supply-side reforms, and specific chemical products such as PVC, MDI, and fertilizers [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - China's Chemical Imports and Exports: - Chemical imports in China remained weak, with significant year-over-year declines in various products such as AN (-91%), BPA (-75%), and PO (-55%) [2]. - Conversely, exports showed strong growth in certain categories, notably TDI (+83%), caustic soda (+49%), and PVC (+47%) [2]. - PVC Market Dynamics: - PVC exports reached a record high of 1.14 million tonnes in Q2 2025, reflecting a 43% year-over-year increase [3]. - The delay in India's BIS registration for PVC imports is expected to sustain China's PVC export flows [3]. - MDI Export Challenges: - MDI exports faced a significant decline due to a US anti-dumping investigation, with polymeric MDI exports dropping 45% year-over-year in Q2 [4]. - Fertilizer Export Trends: - Urea exports increased to 66,000 tonnes in June, indicating a relaxation of export controls, although total exports for the first half of the year were down 44% year-over-year [5]. - Impact of Supply-Side Reforms (SSR) 2.0: - The SSR 2.0 is expected to enforce stricter technological upgrades by the end of 2025, potentially leading to the closure of older plants [1]. - The overall impact on the industry is deemed manageable as many sub-scale units were already shut down during SSR 1.0 [1]. Additional Important Insights - Pricing Power and Market Sentiment: - The chemical sector is experiencing a lack of pricing power due to industry oversupply, leading to cautious sentiment among investors [6]. - Investment Recommendations: - Top picks include Kumho Petrochemical (synthetic rubber) and PETRONAS Chemicals Group (global ex-China urea), while PTT Global Chemical and FPC are recommended as sells [6]. - Risks Identified: - Key risks include weaker-than-expected chemical demand in China, potential delays in new capacity, and financial strains from ongoing projects [68][70][73][75]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the chemical industry in China.