中国 “反内卷” 政策的欧洲受益企业-JPM _ European Beneficiaries from China‘s Anti Involution Policy

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the chemical, metals, mining, steel, and cement industries, particularly in the context of China's anti-involution policy and its implications for European cyclical sectors [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - Chemical Industry Impact: China's significant increase in petrochemical capacity, with 28 million tons of ethylene capacity added in the last five years against a global demand of 19.5 million tons, has led to a severe slump in the chemical industry, the worst in 40 years. An additional 30 million tons of ethylene capacity is expected to come online in the next five years, potentially extending the slump into the 2030s [2][6]. - Capacity Closures: China's actions have forced closures of approximately 4.5 million tons (about 20% in Europe) of capacity elsewhere, but limited closures have occurred within China despite poor sector economics. Significant closures of older, non-economic plants in China could positively impact European petrochemical companies [2][6]. - Coal and Chemical Production: The potential for capacity rationalization in the coal industry could increase coal prices in China, raising production costs for chemicals and making European production more competitive. However, there is currently no evidence of mandated production cuts in the chemical value chains by the Chinese government [2][6]. - Metals and Mining Sector: Companies with exposure to iron ore, copper, and coal are expected to benefit from potential price increases. Key European companies like Rio Tinto, Glencore, and Antofagasta are highlighted as having significant exposure. The European metals and mining sector has underperformed the MSCI Europe index by approximately 60% since January 2023, indicating potential for significant outperformance in 2025/26 [2][6]. - Cement Industry Developments: The China Cement Association has mandated production cuts for enterprises exceeding recorded capacity to combat low-price competition, which is expected to positively impact the sector. Companies like Holcim and Heidelberg Cement are noted for their higher exposure due to local joint ventures [2][6]. Additional Important Insights - Seasonal Slowdown: China's steel production is showing signs of a controlled slowdown, with expectations of a seasonal decline in the second half of 2025 [2][6]. - Naphtha Import Quota: China has approved a naphtha import quota for 2025 that is nearly double that of 2024, indicating planned expansions in capacity with five new crackers set to start in the second half of 2025 [2][6]. - Diverse Chemical Products: The chemical industry comprises thousands of different products, complicating regulatory efforts compared to more singular product sectors like solar polysilicon, steel, or coal [2][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications discussed in the conference call, focusing on the potential impacts of China's policies on various sectors and the opportunities for European companies.