美国_更新关税假设-US_ Updating tariff assumptions

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the tariff policies and their implications on the US economy and global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and drones industries. Core Insights and Arguments - The average effective tariff rate is revised up to 19.5% from 15.2%, marking a 4.3 percentage points (pp) increase due to escalated trade tensions under the Trump administration [4][7][28]. - New assumptions regarding Section 232 tariffs have been introduced, with steel and aluminum tariffs raised to 50% and potential 50% tariffs on copper products being considered [5][8]. - The Department of Commerce has initiated new investigations under Section 232 for products including polysilicon and drones, indicating a broader scope for future tariffs [5][8]. - Despite aggressive tariff actions, factors such as favorable treatment of non-USMCA compliant imports from Mexico and Canada, and a significant decline in imports from China, have limited the rise in the average effective tariff rate [7][10][22]. Additional Important Points - The realized tariff rate was reported to be slightly below 10% as of May, which is significantly lower than the announced tariff rates [7][14]. - The share of imports from China has sharply declined from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.2% in May 2025, with the effective tariff rate against China reaching 47.8%, the highest among major US trading partners [22][24]. - The reciprocal tariffs against targeted countries are expected to average 20%, up from the current 10%, influenced by recent agreements with countries like Indonesia and the Philippines [8][9]. - Risks to the tariff expectations are two-sided; adjustments to exemptions for Mexico and Canada could lead to further increases, while potential postponements of tariff increases could pose downside risks [26][27]. Implications for Monetary Policy - The revised tariff assumptions pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth forecasts, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's objectives regarding price stability and employment [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of US tariff policies and their broader economic implications.