中国工业行业_7 月行业洞察-信号喜忧参半，特大型项目为关注焦点-China Industrials _Industrial insights (July)—Mixed signs, megadam project is the key focus

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: The conference call primarily discusses the China Industrials sector, with a specific emphasis on the heavy-duty truck (HDT) market, construction machinery, and automation orders [2][4][10]. Core Insights - Travel Demand and Freight Volume: There is a positive outlook for travel demand, with domestic air passenger volumes increasing by approximately 3% YoY and national railway service numbers growing by 9% YoY [3][11]. Freight volume metrics also show growth, with national railway freight volume and container throughput at ports up 4% YoY [3]. - Construction Sector Weakness: Despite some positive indicators, the construction sector remains weak, with infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) growth decelerating from 5.6% YoY in the first five months of 2025 to 2.0% YoY in June [4]. This is reflected in the lack of improvement in construction machinery demand and cement shipments [2][4]. - Heavy-Duty Truck Sales: The HDT industry is expected to see sales volumes reach 90,000 units in July, representing a 50% YoY increase from a low base [4][13]. The demand for electric HDTs is particularly strong, with average selling prices (ASP) for e-HDTs around Rmb400-450k [10]. - Automation Orders: A recovery in automation orders is anticipated, driven by traditional downstream sectors such as food and beverage [5]. However, growth in lithium battery downstream demand may slow compared to previous periods [5]. Additional Insights - Excavator Sales: Domestic excavator sales are projected to remain flat YoY, with estimates around 7,700 to 8,000 units in July, indicating a 0-5% YoY growth [12]. Dealers express low expectations for future sales, citing weak real demand and construction activities [12]. - Hydropower Project Impact: The announcement of the Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project is expected to benefit constructors and HDT producers, potentially revitalizing the construction machinery sector [4]. - Market Risks: The industrial sector faces risks from macroeconomic conditions, including potential demand shrinkage for industrial goods and the impact of competition from domestic and foreign enterprises [17]. Valuation and Recommendations - Preferred Stocks: The report includes a valuation summary of preferred stocks in the industrial sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," including Yangzijiang, CRRC, and Longi [8][29]. - Market Capitalization and Ratios: The report provides market capitalization figures and key financial ratios for various companies, indicating a generally favorable outlook for selected stocks in the industrial sector [8][29]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a mixed outlook for the China Industrials sector, with strong travel demand and HDT sales contrasting with ongoing weaknesses in construction and machinery demand. The anticipated impact of new infrastructure projects and automation recovery presents potential opportunities, while macroeconomic risks remain a concern.