化学品_中国 “反内卷” 目标瞄准有 20 年历史的 “旧产能”；青睐 ABS、橡胶，看好Global Chemicals_ China‘s “anti-involution” targets shutdown of 20 year “old capacity”; prefer ABS_Rubber with tailwinds for PE_PP_PVC_TDI depending on policy strength

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the chemical industry in China and its recent regulatory changes aimed at capacity rationalization, particularly targeting old chemical capacities that have been operational for over 20 years [2][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Regulatory Changes: The Chinese government is implementing new growth stabilization plans in key industries, including chemicals, which involve assessing and potentially shutting down chemical capacities that have reached their designed lifespan [2][6]. 2. Impact of Capacity Rationalization: The current round of capacity rationalization is expected to take time to materialize, with a focus on industries that are fragmented and loss-making. This differs from previous efforts that primarily targeted state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [2][6][10]. 3. Preferred Chemical Products: The report recommends investing in higher-quality chemical companies such as LG Chem, Kumho, Hengli, and Petrochina, while suggesting a cautious approach towards lower-quality names until more sustainable measures are established [2][6]. 4. Performance of Specific Chemicals: The preferred chemicals include ABS and SBR, which have shown strong performance year-to-date, with forecasts for these products being raised by 32% and 7% respectively [2][6]. 5. Market Dynamics: The report notes that while price-fixing may work for certain chemicals like polysilicon, it is more challenging in the broader chemical market due to potential import competition unless anti-dumping duties are imposed [10]. 6. TDI Price Movements: TDI prices have increased by 43% in July due to supply disruptions from Covestro, but Wanhua's earnings may be limited due to maintenance at its plants [16]. 7. Earnings Forecasts: The earnings outlook for major companies such as Petrochina and Sinopec indicates a decline in net profits for the second quarter of 2025, with Petrochina expected to report a 14% year-over-year decrease [31]. Additional Important Insights 1. Historical Context: Previous rounds of capacity rationalization in 2015-2016 led to significant closures, particularly in PVC production, which may provide insights into the current regulatory environment [6][10]. 2. Chemical Capacity Statistics: The report provides detailed statistics on the chemical capacities in China, indicating that old capacities account for 2-22% of global demand, with limited immediate impact expected from the current rationalization efforts [8][10]. 3. Future Projections: The report anticipates a slowdown in new chemical capacity additions in China, with a focus on improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions in line with government policies [10][33]. 4. Investment Recommendations: The report emphasizes a positive outlook for companies like LG Chem and Kumho Petchem, while maintaining a neutral stance on Sinopec due to expected losses in its chemicals division [13][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the regulatory landscape, market dynamics, and investment recommendations within the chemical industry in China.