中国反内卷与稳定币举措的影响-Investor Presentation-Implications of China's Anti-Involution and Stablecoin Initiatives

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of China's anti-involution and stablecoin initiatives, focusing on the broader economic landscape in China and the emerging stablecoin market in Hong Kong [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Anti-Involution and Economic Reforms - The current anti-involution measures are more nuanced compared to previous supply-side reforms, targeting mid-to-downstream sectors rather than just upstream sectors [7]. - The reliance on indirect taxes, such as VAT, is incentivizing overcapacity and necessitates comprehensive reforms to stimulate the economy [49][52]. 2. Overcapacity Issues - Overcapacity is particularly severe in sectors like solar energy and electric vehicle (EV) batteries, with China's supply exceeding global demand by over 2 times and 1.3 times, respectively [22]. - Different symptoms of overcapacity require tailored mitigation measures, indicating a shift in the economic landscape [11][16]. 3. Stablecoin Legislation - The global race in stablecoin legislation is intensifying, with significant developments in the US, Japan, Singapore, and the EU, which may strengthen the dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins [26][27]. - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill, effective August 2025, aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, including capital requirements and robust KYC/AML procedures [32][31]. 4. RMB Internationalization - The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) plans for RMB internationalization are crucial in a multipolar monetary world, aiming to enhance the global standing of the RMB [28]. - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, indicating challenges in its international acceptance [46]. 5. Potential Economic Catalysts - The anticipated fiscal measures, including a RMB 10 trillion fiscal package and monetary easing, are expected to support consumption and address overcapacity issues [54]. - The "5R" reflation strategy aims to rebalance the economy by focusing on consumption, social welfare, and structural reforms [54]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlights the need for patience regarding the development of CNH-pegged stablecoins, as market acceptance and liquidity remain limited [44]. - The discussion emphasizes that infrastructure alone is insufficient for RMB internationalization, pointing to the need for deeper structural reforms and a shift in macroeconomic targets [46][50]. - The potential real-world use cases for stablecoins in Hong Kong include cross-border payments and supply-chain financing, indicating a growing interest in blockchain-based financial solutions [34][41].