“反内卷”掩映下的商品超级周期

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the commodity supercycle and the impact of anti-involution policies on the midstream materials and manufacturing industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. Impact of Anti-Involution Policies: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment [1][2][5]. 2. Drivers of Commodity Supercycle: The commodity supercycle is driven by de-globalization and de-dollarization. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. Renminbi Exchange Rate: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. Investment Strategy: It is recommended to follow the Barbell Strategy, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like gold, banks, resources, and utilities, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone [1][7]. 5. US Treasury Account and Interest Rates: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. Historical Context of Anti-Involution: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. Measuring Industry Involution: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. Recent Performance of Involved Industries: Industries with high involution levels, such as coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Commodity Price Trends: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. Sector-Specific Insights: Certain commodities like alumina and live pigs have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. Asset Allocation Recommendations: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].