算力累积利好 - Capex与大美丽法案

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the North American computing power market, particularly in relation to the "Great American Plan" which includes tax incentives and a new interest rate cycle that is expected to drive corporate capital expenditure growth. This is anticipated to positively impact related stocks [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Capital Expenditure Growth: The "Great American Plan" is expected to encourage capital expenditure among companies, with notable increases from major players like Google and Meta, indicating a rising demand for upstream products such as optical modules [2][3]. - Positive Earnings Reports: Major companies like TSMC and Google have reported strong earnings, suggesting that other Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) may also increase their capital expenditures, which could boost market sentiment in the computing power sector [1][3]. - Market Rotation Effects: There is a significant market rotation effect, with North American chains experiencing gains due to strong fundamentals, while domestic chains in China, such as Cambricon and SiNex, also show positive performance amid a high-low switching effect in the A-share market [5][9]. - AI Model Iteration Impact: The ongoing iteration of AI models is driving demand for inference capabilities, with products like NVIDIA's GB300 and the anticipated release of GPT-5 expected to enhance market sentiment and investment enthusiasm [6][9]. - Short-term Valuation Influences: In the short term, the structure of capital and market sentiment are more influential on valuations than fundamentals. The current market environment is characterized by a clear rolling of capital, which is expected to support stock price increases [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - A-share Market Dynamics: The A-share market has seen steady fundamental growth, but stock prices have experienced significant pullbacks. The current chip structure is notably lower than in previous years, which may provide a solid foundation for future price increases [8][9]. - Investor Confidence in AI: The significant investments in AI infrastructure, such as Google's increased budget for AI, indicate a strong commitment to the sector, which is expected to enhance investor confidence [11][12]. - Domestic Chain Recovery: The domestic supply chain in China has shown signs of recovery, with improvements in upstream equipment and materials leading to increased production capacity in fabs and IC design sectors [14][15]. - Future Market Outlook: The overall sentiment suggests that the worst is over for the domestic market, with expectations for a positive trajectory moving forward. Key players in the market are advised to focus on leading companies for value investment [16]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a positive outlook for the computing power sector driven by capital expenditure growth, strong earnings from major companies, and the ongoing evolution of AI technologies. The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies and investor confidence.