锑板块：仍在左侧，看好上行动能

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The T sector is currently viewed as undervalued due to market mispricing, with a core driver of price increases from export recovery yet to begin. The sector is still in a trading sentiment phase, with fundamental recovery lagging behind, presenting a left-side layout opportunity [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - Export Recovery Logic: The export recovery logic began in September 2024 when certain products were subjected to export controls, leading to a widening price gap between domestic and international markets, now approximately 200,000 CNY per ton. Monthly export volumes dropped from a normal range of 2,000 to 3,000 tons to 900 tons from November 2024 to April 2025. The government has recently redefined normal approval processes, indicating that export recovery is imminent, similar to successful precedents in rare earths and tungsten [3]. - Impact of Photovoltaic Demand: The pressure on photovoltaic demand is managed through price limits to protect profits rather than significantly reducing demand. The absolute value of export demand is expected to be much higher than the marginal decrease in photovoltaic demand, with industry consensus indicating that photovoltaic demand is not pessimistic [4][5]. - Government Action Against Smuggling: The establishment of a system to combat strategic mineral smuggling is beneficial for the T sector, as it indicates that illegal activities have been addressed, and legal exports are expected to accelerate. This marks a turning point in the export recovery process, considering reasonable civilian demand from various countries [6]. - Company Highlights in the T Sector: The combined market capitalization of the four companies in the T sector is approximately 70 billion CNY, providing better trading liquidity compared to last year's antimony trading. Huaxi Nonferrous, as the only listed nonferrous metal company in Guangxi, shows promising growth potential and strong expectations for capital injection. Additionally, there may be a short squeeze in tin prices [7]. - Global Economic Environment and Inflation: The current global economic environment shares similarities with the 1970s, with the new Federal Reserve Chairman facing political pressures that may affect independence. Global supply chains are under pressure, suggesting a potential for a return to a high-inflation era similar to the 1970s. Gold prices are expected to rise following a period of pressure testing [8][9]. - Investment Logic for Yuguang Gold Lead Company: Yuguang Gold Lead, as Asia's largest lead smelting plant, produces 6,100 tons of antimony oxide and 1,700 tons of bismuth annually. The company has seen its small metal recovery business revenue double in recent years, with a fourfold increase in gross profit while maintaining costs around 500 million CNY. The current valuation is estimated at less than 8 times earnings, indicating that the market has not fully recognized its value, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10].