大摩闭门会：中国调研后对反内卷的理解，7月底会议前瞻及推广稳定币几分力度-原文

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and the concept of "anti-involution" [1][2][4][5][6][19][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Involution: The discussion centers around the ongoing supply-side reforms in China, particularly the government's initiative to combat "involution" and promote structural adjustments in various industries [1][5][19][21] 2. Market Sentiment and Liquidity: Recent discussions with private and public investors indicate a warming sentiment in the stock market, with some investors perceiving signs of a bull market, although the fundamental economic situation remains challenging [4][6][19] 3. Policy Expectations: The expectation for the second half of the year is that policies will focus on structural adjustments and gradual support, with a recognition that initial measures may only address surface issues rather than deeper structural problems [5][21] 4. Economic Data Trends: There is an anticipation of economic activity peaking in the first half of the year, followed by a potential decline in the latter half, influenced by previous policy measures and external factors [5][21] 5. Impact of U.S.-China Relations: Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to continue without significant breakthroughs, with tariffs likely remaining at current levels for an extended period [12][13][15][18] 6. Real Estate Market Dynamics: The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with expectations for policies to support it, but challenges remain due to mismatches in supply and demand across different cities [25][26] 7. Social Security and Welfare Reforms: There are indications of gradual reforms in the social security system, including potential nationwide birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social welfare [27][28][29] 8. Inflation and Economic Growth: The discussion highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in certain sectors, but overall demand remains weak, complicating the path to sustainable economic growth [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Historical Context: The current reform efforts are compared to previous supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2018, with an emphasis on the need for a more profound structural change rather than just addressing superficial issues [22][24][31] 2. Market Reactions: There is a caution against overly optimistic market expectations, particularly regarding the speed and effectiveness of policy implementations [45][56] 3. Investment Opportunities: The call suggests that while the immediate outlook may be cautious, there are potential long-term investment opportunities arising from structural changes in various industries, particularly those that have previously undergone supply-side reforms [40][44][55]