大摩闭门会：中国调研后对反内卷的理解，7月底会议前瞻及推广稳定币几分力度-纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, macro-economic policies, and the development of stablecoins in Hong Kong and globally. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Macro-Economic Policy Direction: The main theme for the second half of the year is structural adjustment and gradual support, with economic activities expected to peak and then decline. Incremental policies are anticipated to be reactive, requiring data to show a downturn before implementation [1][4][10]. 2. Impact of US-China Relations: Ongoing negotiations between the US and China may extend by 90 days, with no significant improvement in trade relations expected in the short term. This dynamic is likely to pressure Chinese export companies to enhance supply chain resilience [8][11][26]. 3. Stablecoin Development: The introduction of stablecoins in Hong Kong is seen as a significant opportunity, with a focus on their potential to stimulate investment and trading behaviors. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is emphasizing high liquidity asset coverage for stablecoin issuers [2][7][30][31]. 4. Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Overwork Policies: The anti-overwork policies are in the exploratory phase, aiming to curb disorderly competition and guide industry consolidation. The current measures are seen as initial steps rather than comprehensive solutions [3][12][15]. 5. Investment Opportunities in Innovation: Sectors such as AI, new energy, and smart driving are highlighted as areas with structural investment opportunities, alongside the stablecoin market [5][6][30]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. Social Security Reforms: The direction for social security reforms is clear but gradual, with measures like national birth subsidies and free preschool education being discussed [13]. 2. Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook: There is a cautious optimism regarding the market, with some investors sensing signs of a bull market due to improvements in market sentiment and the effectiveness of policies aimed at breaking the deflationary cycle [6][21]. 3. Risks Associated with Stablecoins: Despite the benefits, there are significant risks related to stablecoins, including regulatory uncertainties and potential market volatility due to rapid trading behaviors [32][41]. 4. Hong Kong's Regulatory Framework: The new stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are designed to mitigate systemic risks and ensure that issuers meet high standards, which may limit the number of approved issuers in the short term [36][37]. 5. Long-term Economic Projections: The expectation is that while deflationary pressures may persist until 2026, there is a higher probability of improvement by 2027, driven by supply-demand rebalancing efforts [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape, the evolving role of stablecoins, and the implications for investment strategies.