美国关税影响追踪器 - 涨跌持续-Americas Transportation_ US Tariff Impact Tracker - Up and Down Continues

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the transportation industry, specifically the impact of tariffs on freight flows from China to the USA [1][2][3]. Core Observations - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 8% week-over-week, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline after a surge in inbound shipments [1][5]. - Year-over-year (YoY), laden vessels showed a 3% drop [5]. - Port of Los Angeles is expected to see a 22% increase in sequential imports, followed by a 17% decrease two weeks later, indicating volatility in shipping patterns [5][40]. - Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast increased by 5% YoY, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous declines [5]. - Container rates remained flat sequentially but are under significant pressure, down 70% YoY [5][37]. Trade Scenarios for 2025 - Two potential scenarios for trade in 2025: 1. A surge in orders ahead of a 90-day tariff pause in China. 2. A slowdown in activity due to uncertainty regarding tariffs and inventory management [6][7]. - The likelihood of a pull-forward surge is seen as more probable, complicating volume and earnings predictions for transportation companies [7]. Tariff Impact - The 30% tariffs remain high, potentially affecting demand over time, especially as e-commerce faces the end of de minimis exemptions [8]. - Three possible outcomes for transport stocks: 1. A significant pull-forward leading to inventory build-up followed by a drop in freight demand in the second half of 2025. 2. A less pronounced pull-forward, leading to uncertainty for shippers. 3. Economic stability leading to increased orders as retailers face inventory shortages [11]. Freight Forwarders and Logistics - Freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [12]. - Parcel services (e.g., UPS and FDX) may also benefit from increased demand for air freight during this period [14]. Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the USA increased by 10% YoY in the latest week, following a previous decline [21]. - The overall trend in TEUs remains volatile, reflecting the dynamic nature of trade flows [23][27]. Port Activity - Chinese major port throughput increased by 3% week-over-week and 5% YoY, indicating a slight recovery in port activity [34][35]. - The Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) saw a 5% YoY decline but a 21% sequential increase from May to June, indicating a recovery trend [57][59]. Inventory and Cost Trends - The Logistics Managers Index showed upstream inventory expansion at 66.4 in June, while downstream inventories compressed at 44.2 [72]. - The inventory cost index rose to 80.9, reflecting higher costs associated with inventory management [73]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is currently experiencing significant volatility due to tariff impacts, shifting shipping patterns, and fluctuating demand. Companies in this sector must navigate these challenges while looking for opportunities in freight forwarding and logistics as trade dynamics evolve.