金发姑娘 Goldilocks 经济因贸易政策不确定性进一步下降而延续GOAL Kickstart_ Goldilocks extends with further declines in trade policy uncertainty

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on trade policy uncertainty, monetary policy expectations, and macroeconomic data trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Conditions: The Euro area composite flash PMI rose to 51.0, indicating positive growth momentum. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, supported by a 'Goldilocks' regime characterized by favorable growth conditions and risk asset returns [1][8]. 2. Trade Policy Uncertainty: Trade policy uncertainty has decreased to its lowest level since January, with recent trade agreements between Japan and the US, as well as the EU and US, setting reciprocal tariffs at 15%. This has positively impacted Japanese equities, particularly in the Autos and Industrial sectors [2][21]. 3. Monetary Policy Expectations: Expectations for monetary policy have shifted to a less dovish stance, with the ECB indicating a "wait and see" approach. The FOMC and BoJ are also expected to maintain current rates. This shift is reflected in the flattening of the 2s10s curves across G4 economies [3][17]. 4. Earnings Season Performance: The Q2 earnings season in the US has surprised positively, with markets pricing in larger moves for individual stocks compared to the index. Speculative trading activity has increased, which may support near-term equity returns [3][19]. 5. Asset Allocation Strategy: The asset allocation remains tactically neutral and modestly pro-risk for the next 12 months. The current 'Goldilocks' regime is expected to persist, driven by falling trade uncertainty and supportive macro data [4][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. GDP Growth Forecasts: Japan's GDP growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for FY'25/'26 following the trade agreement announcements [2][10]. 2. Market Volatility: The report notes that markets are currently pricing in 2.4 times larger moves for the average stock compared to the index, indicating heightened volatility expectations [3][19]. 3. Sector Performance: The rally in Japan was led by cyclical sectors, particularly Autos and Industrials, as defensive sectors were repriced higher [2][10]. 4. Future Economic Indicators: Upcoming economic indicators, including US NFPs, ISM, and advance GDP prints, are expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape [7][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current market dynamics, trade policy developments, and monetary policy expectations that are shaping investment strategies.