友邦保险_ 25 年上半年预览_ 新业务价值增长加快且自由盈余生成良好；买入-AIA Group (1299.HK)_ 1H25 Preview_ Faster VONB growth and free surplus generation; Buy

AIA will report 2Q/1H25 results on 21 Aug, before market open. We estimate an acceleration in VONB growth in 2Q (16% yoy vs. 13% in 1Q25) and net free surplus generation in 1H25 (+9% yoy in 1H25 vs. +2% yoy in FY24). We don't expect any additional buybacks for FY25. We believe investors should focus on underlying drivers of VONB and free surplus generation growth, including 1) underlying growth in mainland China (excl. economic assumption changes impacts) and in the newly established regions; 2) HK sales mo ...