2025-07-29 02:31Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AI Supply Chain within the semiconductor industry, particularly highlighting the performance and projections for major companies involved in AI semiconductors, including Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, and others [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Google's Capital Expenditure (Capex) Increase: - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure budget to US$85 billion from US$75 billion, indicating strong ongoing demand for AI infrastructure [2]. - The company processes over 980 trillion tokens monthly, which has doubled from 480 trillion in May, reflecting robust AI demand [2]. 2. AI Semiconductor Demand: - The demand for AI semiconductors remains strong, with a positive outlook for both US Semiconductors and Greater China Semiconductors [2]. - The H20 chip shipments are expected to resume, with a total of 1 million units anticipated from previous inventory and new production [3]. 3. TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Allocation: - TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity is projected to grow by 40%-50%, driven by increasing demand for cloud AI semiconductors [4]. - The forecast for CoWoS-S consumption at TSMC for AMD has been raised from 50k to 60k units in 2025, indicating expected recurring orders for its MI308 in the Chinese market [3]. 4. Nvidia's CoWoS Booking: - Nvidia's CoWoS-L booking for 2026 is projected at 510k units, a 31% year-over-year increase, implying a total of 5.4 million chips [8]. - The company is also expected to see CoWoS-R booking of around 60k units for various CPU projects [11]. 5. Broadcom's CoWoS Allocation: - Broadcom has booked approximately 145k CoWoS wafers at TSMC, primarily for projects with Google, Meta, and OpenAI [11]. 6. Overall AI Capex Trends: - The top four US hyperscalers are expected to generate US$550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI-related data centers [37]. - The average AI capex/EBITDA ratio is projected to be around 50% in 2025, indicating strong financial capacity for further investments [38]. Additional Important Insights - Depreciation Trends: Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses for data center customers has risen significantly, expected to reach 10-14% in 2025 due to increased capex [38]. - Cloud Capex Growth: The cloud capex tracker indicates a 43% year-over-year growth in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 39% [45]. - AI Semiconductor Revenue: AI semiconductors are projected to account for a significant portion of TSMC's revenue, with estimates suggesting 25% of total revenue in 2025 [67]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the AI semiconductor industry.