美国经济：就业报告预览- 招聘放缓但失业率仍处于低位-US Economics=Employment Report Preview Slower hiring still coincides with low unemployment

Summary of Employment Report Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and employment trends in North America as of July 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. Payroll Growth Forecast: - Payrolls are expected to rise by 100,000 in July, with private payrolls contributing the same amount while government payrolls are projected to remain unchanged [1][6][8] 2. Unemployment Rate: - The U3 unemployment rate is forecasted to increase slightly to 4.2%, remaining unchanged from a year earlier despite slower payroll growth [1][22][25] 3. Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR): - The LFPR is expected to hold steady at 62.3%, but there are concerns that it may exert downward pressure on the unemployment rate due to declining participation, particularly among foreign-born individuals [1][23][29] 4. Average Hourly Earnings: - Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [1][21][18] 5. Sector-Specific Insights: - The slowdown in private payrolls is notable, averaging 155,000 per month in 2023, 130,000 in 2024, and 107,000 in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the services sector [7][8] - Manufacturing payrolls showed a slowdown in Q2 but did not experience a sudden stop in activity, while construction payrolls remained soft [7][8] 6. Government Employment Trends: - Federal government hiring is expected to slow, with a projected decline of 20,000 jobs in July, while state and local government payrolls are expected to see gains [8][9] 7. Job Market Dynamics: - New jobless claims are stable compared to the previous year, indicating limited layoffs, while job openings remain high, suggesting strong labor demand [9][14] 8. Breakeven Payroll Pace: - The breakeven pace for payrolls has decreased from 210,000 last year to 140,000 this year, with expectations that it could slow to 70,000 by year-end if deportations increase [24][27] Additional Important Insights - Risks and Uncertainties: - Upside risks include a higher job openings rate potentially leading to faster hiring, while downside risks stem from the ongoing slowdown in private payrolls and potential seasonal adjustments affecting payroll data [38][39] - Future Federal Reserve Actions: - The report suggests that slower payroll gains are unlikely to prompt immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as they remain focused on the overall labor market conditions [37] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the employment report preview, highlighting the current state and anticipated trends in the US labor market.