钴：自刚果（金）进口钴原料大幅收缩，钴价看涨

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which holds 55% of global cobalt reserves and accounts for 76% of global production [3][12] - The DRC's export ban on cobalt has led to substantial price increases, with MB cobalt prices rising by 58%, intermediate cobalt products by 91%, and domestic metal cobalt by 47% since the ban was implemented [2][12] Key Points and Arguments - The DRC's export ban, initiated on February 24, 2025, aims to address oversupply issues in the global cobalt market [2] - The ban's impact is evident, with a significant drop in imports to China from the DRC, with cobalt wet-process intermediate imports decreasing by 42% year-on-year and 61% month-on-month in June [10] - Indonesia's cobalt production, which constitutes only 10% of global supply, is insufficient to fill the gap left by the DRC's export restrictions, despite a 40% increase in nickel wet-process intermediate production [6] - Domestic demand for cobalt in China has seen a 3% decline in ternary precursor production, with the battery sector representing the largest share of demand at 47% [7] Future Policy Directions - The DRC government is likely to extend or adjust the export ban to stabilize market conditions, with a decision expected by September 21, 2025 [9][12] - The DRC's strategy includes controlling supply to maintain higher price levels and enhance its international influence [12] Market Predictions - The global cobalt market is projected to shift from oversupply to a shortage by 2025 if the DRC maintains its export restrictions [13] - Current market predictions for cobalt quotas are around 70%, indicating a potential tightening of supply [15] Price Trends - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the DRC's clear intent to increase prices, with market indicators already reflecting upward trends [17] - Domestic cobalt prices have shown stability, but the tightening supply is anticipated to lead to price increases in the near future [16] Investment Recommendations - Companies in Indonesia with wet-process nickel-cobalt refining capabilities, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended as they are less affected by DRC policies [18] - Companies with cobalt mining or refining capabilities in the DRC, such as Luoyang Mining, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth post-policy adjustments [19] Additional Insights - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant reduction in cobalt inventories in China, indicating a shift towards a tighter supply environment [10][11] - The DRC's control over cobalt supply positions it as a critical player in the global market, with its policies directly influencing prices and availability [12]