“反内卷”引发债市调整，然后呢？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the bond market and its relationship with commodity prices and macroeconomic factors, particularly in the context of recent market adjustments due to rising commodity prices and policy changes. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Indices Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,600 points, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 8.5%, which has exerted pressure on the bond market [3][1]. 2. Bond Yield Changes: The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points and 11 basis points, reaching 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [3][1]. 3. Commodity Price Drivers: The current rise in commodity prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations due to "anti-involution" policies rather than improvements in demand, which does not pose a significant downside risk to the bond market [5][1]. 4. Historical Context: - During the 2016 supply-side reform, commodity price increases did not significantly translate to CPI, allowing the central bank to maintain a loose monetary policy until October 2016 [5][1]. - From February to August 2021, rising international commodity prices increased PPI, but the central bank did not tighten significantly, leading to a decline in bond yield central [5][1]. - In September to October 2021, concerns over stagflation due to rising coal prices were alleviated when prices returned to reasonable levels, resulting in a decline in bond yields [5][1]. 5. Current Market Sentiment: - Bond yields are at absolute low levels, with insufficient downward momentum, and investors are more sensitive to negative news due to high market congestion [6][1]. - A rebound in risk appetite has suppressed bullish sentiment, with funds being diverted to equity and commodity markets [6][1]. - Expectations for loose monetary policy are diminishing, contributing to the current market adjustment [6][1]. 6. Short-term Trading Outlook: Long-term interest rates currently offer a certain value proposition, and new regulations limiting futures positions have dampened bullish sentiment in commodities, creating some recovery opportunities. However, market risk appetite fluctuations and ongoing uncertainties regarding growth policies and US-China trade negotiations suggest limited short-term trading space, necessitating cautious entry timing [7][2]. Other Important Insights - The impact of commodity price changes on the bond market is complex and varies depending on the underlying causes of price increases, which can influence central bank actions and market performance differently [4][1]. - The current adjustment in the bond market is seen as similar to past instances where commodity price fluctuations did not lead to significant tightening of monetary policy, indicating a potential for recovery if conditions stabilize [5][1].