锂价进入 7 月第四周 —— 市场愈发预期中国锂云母矿将关闭-China Specialty Chemicals_ Lithium into 4th week of Jul – Market increasingly expecting lepidolite closures in China

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Lithium market within the China Specialty Chemicals industry, particularly regarding lepidolite mining and its implications for lithium supply and pricing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Lepidolite Mine Closures: - Market sentiment is shifting towards the expectation of lepidolite mine closures in China due to regulatory changes. The Yichun government has requested local miners to re-submit mining documentation by September 30, 2025, which may lead to a need for new permits from the Central government under the new Mineral Resources Law effective July 1, 2024 [1] 2. Impact on Lithium Supply: - Lepidolite contributed 154,000 tons (kt) and 98kt of carbonate in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, accounting for approximately 23% of the domestic carbonate market. If closures occur, the lithium market is expected to rebalance, potentially driving prices for lithium and spodumene upward [1] 3. Lithium Pricing Trends: - As of July 25, 2025, the average selling prices (ASP) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) increased to Rmb72,900 per ton and Rmb63,100 per ton, respectively, compared to Rmb63,700 per ton and Rmb57,400 per ton on July 10, 2025. This indicates a significant price increase over a two-week period [2] 4. Production and Inventory Changes: - Lithium carbonate production in China decreased by 3% week-over-week to 18,630 tons. Specifically, production from lepidolite fell by 13%, while brine and recycled lithium saw minor declines. Total inventory of Li2CO3 remained stable at 143,170 tons, with downstream players' inventories increasing by 4% [2] Additional Important Information - Regulatory Environment: The new Mineral Resources Law may impose stricter regulations on mining operations, which could affect the supply chain and pricing dynamics in the lithium market [1] - Market Dynamics: The anticipated mine closures and regulatory changes could lead to a tighter supply of lithium, which is critical for battery production and electric vehicle manufacturing, thereby influencing broader market trends [1][2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the lithium market, particularly focusing on the implications of regulatory changes and market dynamics in China.