电力基础设施：能源政策变化如何影响可再生能源市场-Electrical Infrastructure_ How does the change in energy policy impact the renewable market_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the U.S. renewable energy sector, particularly the impact of the Trump Administration's policy changes on solar and wind construction activities through 2030 [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Impact of Policy Changes: The Trump Administration is actively working to reduce renewable power build-out by removing solar and wind subsidies, which shortens the eligibility cycle for tax credits [3][4][13]. 2. Construction Costs: Recent policy actions are expected to raise construction costs due to eliminated tax credits, higher tariffs, and stricter domestic content rules [3][4][13]. 3. Power Supply Shortage: The U.S. is projected to need approximately 85 GW of additional power supply by 2030, with 60 GW expected to come from renewables [4][15]. 4. Renewable Growth Outlook: The renewable sector is likely to experience a period of stagnation through the end of the decade, with a potential 10% reset in capacity additions, but a base-case scenario suggests a flat 5-year CAGR [5][16]. 5. Next Catalysts: A key upcoming event is the Treasury's amendment of the Safe Harbor policy in mid-August, which will influence project pull-forward strength and tax credit eligibility [6][14]. Company-Specific Insights 1. Quanta Services (PWR): PWR is most exposed to the renewable market, with 30% of revenues derived from this sector. The long-term EPS CAGR is expected to slow from +17% to +12%, leading to a downgrade from Outperform to Market Perform [7][17]. 2. Vestas Wind Systems: Vestas, the second-largest turbine supplier in the U.S., has already priced in the impact of a slowing U.S. market. The company is expected to benefit from orders secured under previous IRA provisions [10][17]. 3. RWE: RWE has a significant presence in the U.S. renewable market, with 57% of its operations in onshore wind and solar. The company has safe-harbored capacity for growth until 2028 but is cautious about future investments due to tariff risks [11][17]. 4. EDP Renováveis (EDPR): EDPR has a substantial U.S. presence, with 48% of its installed capacity located in the country. The company has safe-harbored over 1.5 GW of capacity and is optimistic about the U.S. market's growth potential [12][17]. Additional Important Insights 1. Economic Viability: Even without tax credits, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for renewables remains competitive compared to natural gas, with a 30% advantage [4][59][65]. 2. Future Demand: The U.S. will require significant renewable capacity to meet growing electricity demand, particularly as natural gas turbine manufacturing capacity is limited [51][54]. 3. PPA Price Adjustments: To incentivize construction, power purchase agreement (PPA) prices will need to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting a 25-60% increase to achieve returns above the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [65][72][74]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the U.S. renewable energy sector amidst changing policies and market dynamics.