TC Energy(TRP) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for Q2 2025, raising its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, which represents a 9% increase over 2024 [7][20][22] - The company has completed or placed into service approximately $5.8 billion of capacity projects, including the Southeast Gateway and East Lateral Express projects [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canada Gas EBITDA increased due to contributions from Coastal GasLink and higher flow-through regulated costs [18] - The U.S. business saw EBITDA growth primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and new customer contracts [18] - The Mexico business experienced higher earnings from TGNH, driven by the Southeast Gateway pipeline completion, although offset by lower equity earnings from Sur de Tejas [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is now forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a previous forecast of 40 Bcf per day, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and industrial demand [8][9] - The company is engaged in commercial discussions with over 30 counterparties across the data center value chain, indicating strong customer demand for incremental service [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize asset value through safety and operational excellence, execute a high-quality capital-efficient growth portfolio, and maintain financial strength for long-term value creation [24] - TC Energy is focusing on brownfield expansions and corridor projects, with an average project size of around $450 million, which allows for better capital efficiency [56][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution plan for the remainder of the year, expecting to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service, which is about 15% below budget [10][20] - The company anticipates further deleveraging to approximately 4.75 times by 2026, supported by cash flow from new projects [20][63] Other Important Information - The company released its 2025 sustainability report, highlighting a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions over the last five years while increasing throughput by 15% [22][23] - The report also sets a new methane intensity reduction target of 40% to 55% by 2035, based on 2019 levels [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Columbia Gas settlement rates - Management confirmed a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates due to the Columbia Gas settlement, with further details to be provided in final filings [27][29] Question: Capacity availability for Meta's data center in Ohio - Management indicated strong positioning to serve capacity needs in the New Albany area, with ongoing optimization efforts [31][32] Question: 2027 EBITDA guidance considerations - Management remains confident in the 2027 EBITDA guidance range of $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion, with ongoing rate cases and project execution being key factors [37][39] Question: Canadian pipeline assets and potential toll revisions - Management does not foresee downward pressure on returns for Canadian pipeline assets, emphasizing the need for capacity expansion to meet market demands [40][42] Question: Project announcements in Pennsylvania - Management highlighted the potential for increased market share in Pennsylvania due to rising demand and ongoing project discussions [49][51] Question: Future project partnerships - Management expressed openness to partnerships for future projects, focusing on capital efficiency and leveraging existing capabilities [110]