股市赋能“反内卷”，历史借鉴及港股机会展望

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current state of Chinese industrial enterprises shows profit margins nearing historical lows, with both traditional and emerging industries facing intense price competition, necessitating a new round of supply-side reforms to enhance overall competitiveness [1][2][3] Core Points and Arguments - The new supply-side reform, starting in the second half of 2024, aims to address declining capital returns and low capacity utilization, with a projected capacity utilization rate of only 74% and an industrial profit margin of 4.97% in 2025, which is below the 30th percentile since 1996 [2][4] - This reform differs from previous ones in 1998 and 2016, focusing on optimizing market conditions, strengthening industry self-discipline, and guiding enterprise innovation to combat low-price competition and promote high-quality development [1][4] - Historical supply-side reforms have previously led to stock market rallies, with the 1998 state-owned enterprise reform and the 2016 capacity reduction reform both resulting in significant market movements and valuation recoveries in related sectors [5][6] Potential Opportunities - The new anti-involution policy is expected to reduce low-price competition, enhance profit margins, and promote technological accumulation and innovation investment, benefiting companies with core technological advantages and strong innovation capabilities [6][7] - The energy and materials sectors currently have low price-to-book ratios (PB) between 0.5 and 0.6. If these valuations recover to 1 or 1.5, significant upside potential exists [8][12] - Key sectors in the Hong Kong stock market that may benefit from the anti-involution policy include internet, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicle industries, which are expected to see profit recovery and enhanced competitiveness through improved product quality and technological differentiation [11][12] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy will focus on breaking local government protectionism, preventing unfair competition, and optimizing market conditions through new regulations and industry self-regulation [10] - Traditional upstream industries in Hong Kong, such as cement and coal, are characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields (3% to 5%), presenting a safe investment opportunity if supply-demand dynamics improve [12]