2025-08-05 03:15Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Technology Hardware - Date: July 29, 2025 - Analysts Involved: Howard Kao, Shoji Sato, Shawn Kim, Joseph Moore, Charlie Chan, Sharon Shih Key Points on Nvidia and CoWoP Technology - Nvidia's Chip Packaging Technology: There is speculation regarding Nvidia's potential adoption of CoWoP (Chip on Wafer on PCB) for its next-generation data center GPUs, specifically Rubin Ultra [3][4] - Current Technology: Nvidia currently utilizes TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology, which reportedly has a yield rate close to 100% [6] - Challenges with CoWoP: - The transition to CoWoP would require a significant reduction in the line/space (L/S) of the PCB to below 10/10µm, which is currently challenging given that average HDI PCBs are at 40/50µm [4] - The complexity and risks associated with shifting to CoWoP, including yield risks and supply chain reshuffling, make it unlikely for Rubin Ultra to adopt this technology in the near term [4] - Potential Development: Nvidia may still be developing CoWoP technology alongside existing mass production methods to address issues like substrate warpage and supply tightness [5] Implications for Suppliers - Beneficiaries of CoWoP: If CoWoP is adopted, suppliers with mSAP (modified semi-additive) manufacturing capabilities, such as Zhen Ding and Unimicron, could benefit [12] - Negative Impact on ABF Suppliers: Companies like Ibiden and Unimicron, which are key partners for Nvidia's AI GPU substrates, may face negative implications if CoWoP becomes widespread [12] Valuation and Risks - Unimicron Valuation: The target price-to-book (P/B) ratio for Unimicron is set at 1.2x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the 2020-23 average of 2.2x due to expected lower return on equity (ROE) [15] - Risks to Upside: - High-value-added ABF package products could support earnings more than anticipated [17] - Better-than-expected demand for ABF substrates from PC and server customers [20] - Risks to Downside: - Sudden demand shortfalls and technological changes that reduce the need for ABF substrates could negatively impact suppliers [20][25] Additional Insights - CoWoP vs. CoWoS: CoWoP aims to resolve issues like substrate warpage and improve cooling efficiency, but the high yield rate of CoWoS presents a strong argument for its continued use [7][11] - Market Dynamics: The shift towards CoWoP could lead to increased competition and pricing pressure among suppliers, particularly in the context of evolving technology and market demands [20][25] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on Nvidia's technology developments, implications for suppliers, and the broader market context within the Greater China Technology Hardware industry.