新兴市场及亚太地区股票策略：关税上调的布局情况-EM & APAC Equity Strategy_ The set-up into the tariff step-up

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Industry: Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) Equity Strategy - Context: The call discusses the implications of increased tariff rates on corporate profitability and market dynamics, particularly focusing on the US and its trading partners. Key Points Tariff Implications - Tariff Rates: The weighted average tariff rates on US imports are projected to exceed 18% starting from August 1, 2025, a level not seen in 92 years [1][7] - US Import Tariffs: Currently, less than 50% of US imports are subject to tariffs, up from under 30% prior to recent changes [1][26] - Customs Revenue: US customs revenues from import tariffs have increased significantly, with an annualized additional revenue of approximately USD 220 billion as of June 2025 [1][21] Corporate Responses to Tariffs - Impact on Earnings: US-based importers experienced a minor impact in the first half of the year due to pre-buying strategies but anticipate a larger hit in the second half [2] - Mitigation Strategies: Companies are managing tariff impacts through supply chain optimization, cost-sharing with suppliers, and implementing 'tariff surcharges' on end-customer prices [2] - Sector-Specific Concerns: Korean and Japanese firms have expressed significant concerns regarding tariff impacts [2] Market Reactions - Earnings Cuts: EM stocks with high US exposure (25% or more) have seen a consensus earnings cut of approximately 2.5-3% since March 31, 2025, while stocks with no US revenue exposure have remained stable [3][49] - Stock Performance: Stocks with higher US exposure have underperformed those without by about 4% during the same period [3][48] - Market Sentiment: There is a prevailing belief in the market that tariffs are temporary, leading to a lack of concern about tariff risks [3] Investment Strategy - Market Selection Framework: Tariffs are a significant theme in market selection, with a focus on companies with higher domestic exposure and lower US exposure [4] - Geographical Focus: The strategy is overweight on markets such as China, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, with projected upside of 7% for MSCI EM and 8% for MSCI AxJ by 2026 [4][9] Sector Performance - Operating Profits: Most EM manufacturing companies reported stable to upward momentum in operating profits, with 13% of MSCI EM revenue linked to the US [4][33] - Sector Vulnerability: The manufacturing sector is particularly vulnerable due to tightly knit global supply chains, with potential profitability pressures expected in the second half of the year [4] Company-Specific Insights - Dixon Technologies (India): Reported a 10% import tariff impact on camera modules, with significant negative effects on margins [57] - Hyundai Motor Co. (Korea): Anticipated a 39.5% drop in operating profit due to tariffs [57] - Panasonic (Japan): Estimated a 1% impact on consolidated business profit for the second half of the year [57] - NIDEC (Japan): Experienced a minor impact from tariffs, with management indicating that the overall effect is manageable [57] Additional Observations - Tariff Uncertainty: Companies across various sectors are facing uncertainty due to tariffs, leading to cautious spending and project delays [58] - Hedging Strategies: Some firms, like Arca Continental in Mexico, are employing hedging strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [58] Conclusion The conference call highlights the significant impact of rising tariffs on corporate profitability and market dynamics in the EM and APAC regions. Companies are adapting through various strategies, but concerns remain about the long-term implications of these tariffs on earnings and market performance.