医疗健康领域 -7 月月度报告：预计优质股票将反弹-July monthly_ anticipate a rebound in quality stocks_ Industry Overview

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The healthcare sector is showing signs of recovery, with 22 out of 48 healthcare-related stocks outperforming the TOPIX index in the four weeks leading to July 25, compared to 29 in June and 12 in May [1][9] - Small and mid-cap stocks performed well leading up to Japan's Upper House election, while pharmaceutical and Medtech stocks have recently rebounded [1][9] - Companies such as Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, and Terumo are under close observation for potential reassessment of their fundamentals [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - The impact of US tariffs on pharmaceutical stocks is expected to be limited, while strong US demand is likely to support Medtech earnings [1] - Biopharma recommendations include Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, and Chugai, with a focus on earnings, catalysts, and valuations [2] - Major Medtech companies are anticipated to revise down FY3/26 earnings guidance, but the overall sector outlook remains positive due to recent share-price weakness being factored in [2][16] - Healthcare Services stocks, particularly Medley, are expected to see share-price upside despite overall sector challenges [2][18] Earnings Results and Forecasts - Earnings results for Chugai and Shionogi were below guidance, with Chugai facing delays in Hemlibra shipments and Shionogi experiencing sluggish domestic sales [19] - The consensus estimates for several companies, including Daiichi Sankyo and Otsuka, are viewed positively, with expectations of earnings in line with or exceeding market consensus [19][20] - The upcoming earnings reports for Medtech companies like Fujifilm, Sysmex, and Terumo are anticipated to be in line with expectations, although Olympus is expected to report below consensus [21] Stock Performance and Recommendations - The TSE Pharmaceutical Index underperformed the TOPIX, with a notable decline in share prices for companies like M3 and Otsuka [9][12] - Key stocks highlighted for potential upside include Sysmex and Shimadzu due to low valuations and expected guidance revisions [16] - Medley is reaffirmed as a bullish investment despite recent underperformance, with expectations of improved earnings momentum [18] Tariff Agreements and Market Impact - Recent US tariff agreements with Japan and the EU are seen as positive for the pharmaceutical industry, although uncertainty remains due to ongoing investigations under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act [15][30] - The inclusion of pharmaceuticals in the US-EU agreement alleviates concerns about potential high tariffs on the sector [30] Other Important Insights - The Alzheimer's diagnostics market is expected to grow significantly, with the introduction of blood-based biomarker testing potentially increasing market adoption [34][35] - Sysmex is positioned to benefit from collaborations in the Alzheimer's reagents market, with potential sales contributions factored into future earnings guidance [36] - The healthcare services sector is facing limited macroeconomic risks, but overall sentiment is cautious due to expected lackluster performance in share prices [25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the healthcare industry's current state, stock performance, earnings forecasts, and external market influences.