中国化工经销商调查：尽管销售温和增长，情绪仍疲弱-Chinese Chemical Distributor Survey_ Sentiment Weak Despite Modest Sales Growth

Summary of the Chemical Distributor Survey in China Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the chemical distribution industry in China, particularly in major industrial cities such as Shanghai, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing, Linyi, and Qingdao, which collectively have a population of approximately 70 million and are part of a region with around 550 million people [doc id='16']. Key Findings - Sales Growth: The survey indicated modest sales growth in the chemical sector, particularly in paint chemicals, with a noted acceleration in August. However, overall trends were weaker than expected, with orders lagging behind inventories, raising concerns about volume risks in the fall [doc id='1'][doc id='16']. - Cyclical Confidence: Cyclical confidence remains low, comparable to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lack of sales acceleration suggests that tariff-related challenges are counteracting typical seasonal demand increases [doc id='1'][doc id='16']. - Sales Outlook: The sales outlook is described as soft, with persistent sourcing difficulties impacting expectations. Shanghai shows the strongest trends, while Qingdao exhibits the weakest [doc id='16']. Sales Metrics - Sales Performance: Monthly sales reached their highest level since November 2024, but cyclical confidence remains muted. The survey results indicate that the order-to-inventory ratio is flat, and sales acceleration is off its peak [doc id='8'][doc id='10']. - Sales Ratings: The survey uses a rating scale from -2 (weak) to 2 (strong). Current ratings for various sectors indicate a generally weak performance, with many sectors rated below zero [doc id='20']. Sector-Specific Insights - Paint Distributors: The current rating for paint distributors is -1.00, indicating a soft market compared to previous surveys [doc id='20']. - Chemical End-Markets: The outlook for chemical end-markets remains weak, with several sectors such as construction, clothing, and packaging rated negatively [doc id='20']. Additional Observations - Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment among distributors is weak, with expectations for future sales remaining low. This sentiment is reflected in the survey's findings, which highlight ongoing challenges in the market [doc id='1'][doc id='16']. - Potential Risks: The combination of weak demand, high inventories, and tariff-related headwinds poses significant risks to the chemical distribution sector in the near term [doc id='1']. Conclusion - The survey results indicate a challenging environment for chemical distributors in China, characterized by weak sales growth, low cyclical confidence, and a soft sales outlook. The industry faces several headwinds that could impact future performance, necessitating close monitoring of market conditions and distributor sentiment [doc id='1'][doc id='16'].