全球策略 -2025 年全球投资指引Global Strategy -Global Exposure Guide 2025

Summary of Global Exposure Guide 2025 Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the geographical revenue exposure of companies in North America, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets (EM) for the year 2025, published by Morgan Stanley [1][17]. Key Highlights North America - Companies derive 26% of their revenue from foreign sources, with Europe being the largest source at 11%. Other sources include Asia ex-Japan & ex-China at 4%, Latin America at 4%, and China at 3% [2]. - Sectors with the highest foreign revenue exposure: - Technology: 55% - Materials: 48% - Industrials: 30% - Industry groups with the highest exposure: - Semiconductors: 62% - Tech Hardware & Equipment: 59% - Household & Personal Products: 50% - Defensive sectors (Utilities, Health Care, Real Estate) have the lowest foreign exposure [2]. Europe - European companies earn 56% of their revenue domestically and 44% from foreign markets, with a decline in domestic revenue generation over nearly three decades [3]. - Key foreign markets for European companies: - North America: 22% - Asia Pacific: 19% - Sectors with the highest foreign market exposure: - Semiconductors, Energy, and Pharmaceuticals [3]. Japan - Japanese companies derive 56% of their sales domestically and 44% from overseas, with the Americas accounting for 18% of overseas revenues [4]. - Sectors with the highest overseas exposure include mining, rubber products, and transportation equipment [4]. Emerging Markets (EM) - Companies in APxJ and EM derive over 28% of revenues from foreign markets, with the US/Canada being the largest source at 8% and Europe at 6% [5]. - Chinese companies have a rising foreign revenue share, now at 16%, while over 43% of EM-ex-China sales are generated abroad [5]. Additional Insights - US companies are most exposed to consumers, driving over 50% of revenues, while European companies are least exposed [11]. - European companies incur over 30% of their costs in Developed Europe, with 11% of North American companies incurring more than half of their costs in North America [12]. - The report highlights the importance of geographical revenue exposure amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts, aligning with Morgan Stanley's key theme for 2025: Multipolar World [14][16]. Conclusion - The Global Exposure Guide provides a comprehensive analysis of revenue exposure across different regions and sectors, emphasizing the increasing importance of foreign markets for companies in North America, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets [17][29].