日本股票策略：短期波动 -为选择性动量反转做好准备-Japan Equity Strategy_ Sho-Time_ Brace for Selective Momentum Reversal

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, particularly the TOPIX 500 index and its performance in relation to earnings and market dynamics [1][11][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - Contrarian Bias in Stock Reactions: Share price reactions to 1Q earnings have shown a strong contrarian bias, with high-momentum stocks facing potential profit-taking despite solid earnings support [1][11][27]. - Profit-Taking Opportunities: Temporary selling in high-momentum names is viewed as an opportunity to buy on dips as the market heads into 2Q results [1][11][32]. - Earnings Support Lacking: The post-tariff-agreement rally lacks strong earnings support, with recent gains driven more by P/E expansion than by earnings strength [11][12]. - Focus on Domestic Politics: The focus of uncertainty is shifting from external pressures, such as tariffs, to internal pressures related to domestic politics, which could impact fiscal stimulus expectations [11][40][43]. - Banking Sector Outlook: The report maintains a long position in banks, anticipating that proactive fiscal stimulus could positively affect the banking sector [11][44]. Important but Overlooked Content - Market Liquidity Concerns: August is typically marked by lower market liquidity, raising caution against potential profit-taking by foreign investors, which could increase volatility [11][19]. - Historical Patterns: Historically, stocks with high run rates tend to rise until Q2 results are released, but a contrarian pattern emerges when considering Q1 earnings reactions [27][30]. - Sector-Specific Risks: Auto stocks are highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, which could constrain EPS growth [11][14]. - Dividend Yield Factor: The effectiveness of the dividend yield factor has increased, suggesting a shift in focus for investors amid rising volatility [11][19][21]. Data and Exhibits - Exhibit 1: Shows the TOPIX 500 revision and YoY stock price comparison, indicating that stock increases following the Japan-US tariff agreement lack strong earnings support [3][16]. - Exhibit 2: Illustrates stock reactions to recurring profit achievement rates, emphasizing the need to watch for profit-taking in high-momentum names [5][36]. - Exhibit 13 and 14: Lists high-momentum stocks with elevated valuations and limited earnings support, as well as those with strong earnings backing price gains, respectively [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Japanese equity market.