2025-08-05 03:15Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: NIO Inc. (Ticker: 9866.HK) - Industry: China Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Cap: Rmb132,183 million - Current Share Price: HK$34.80 (as of July 31, 2025) - Price Target: HK$45.80, indicating a 32% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Product Launch - Product: Onvo L90 - Launch Date: July 31, 2025 - Price Range: Rmb265.8k - 299.8k - Configuration: 6-seat, 2+2+2 layout aimed at a broader customer base - Features: Spacious cabin, AR-HUD, L2+ smart driving based on Nvidia Orin-X - Market Reaction: Initial pricing exceeded expectations, with the Ultra version priced below Rmb300k being a positive surprise [2][2][2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Stock Performance: NIO H-shares rose 27% in July, outperforming the HSI which rose 2.9% - Market Sentiment: Despite positive pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, fragile market sentiment may lead to profit-taking post-launch - Volatility: Ongoing tug-of-war between onshore bulls and offshore bears expected to keep stock volatile until clarity on order conversion and delivery ramp-up in August-September [3][3][3] Financial Projections - Revenue Estimates: - FY 2024: Rmb65,731 million - FY 2025: Rmb114,167 million - FY 2026: Rmb144,834 million - FY 2027: Rmb180,853 million - EPS Estimates: - FY 2024: (Rmb11.03) - FY 2025: (Rmb5.70) - FY 2026: (Rmb7.93) - FY 2027: (Rmb2.57) [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - WACC: 18.7% - Beta: 2.4 - Long-term Growth Rate: 3% - Valuation Scenarios: 25%/50%/25% weightings for bull/base/bear cases reflecting macro outlook and sector competition [9][10][10] Risks - Upside Risks: - Introduction of a mass market brand - Stronger-than-expected sales volume - Improvements in operating efficiency - Downside Risks: - Weaker-than-expected sales volume - Lack of efficiency improvements - Moderating auto sales growth impacting overall industry valuations [12][12][12] Conclusion - NIO Inc. is positioned for potential growth with the launch of the Onvo L90, but market volatility and execution risks remain significant factors to monitor. The financial outlook shows a path towards revenue growth, albeit with projected losses in the near term. Investors should remain cautious and attentive to market reactions and operational performance in the coming months.