2025年化工行业“反内卷”系列电话会议—粘胶

Summary of the Conference Call on the Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in market concentration, with leading companies' market share rising from 50% before the pandemic to 70% currently, indicating a notable improvement in industry concentration [1][3] - The differentiation rate in the industry has increased from approximately 15% in 2017-2018 to nearly 30% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards more diverse product offerings [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total production of viscose staple fiber is projected to reach 4.28 million tons in 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 88%, indicating that operational facilities are running at near full capacity [1][4] - There is an anticipated demand gap of at least 200,000 tons in 2024, suggesting a continued bullish outlook for the industry [1][7] - The downstream demand is primarily driven by the growth in hygiene products and advancements in vortex spinning technology, particularly in domestic markets for pure and blended fibers [1][6] Price Trends - Viscose staple fiber prices are expected to rise in a gradual manner, with each price increase estimated at around 200 yuan, leading to a quarterly increase of 600 to 1,000 yuan [2][15] - The decline in raw material costs, particularly dissolving pulp, has contributed positively to profit margins, with some leading companies achieving gross profits of around 1,000 yuan per ton [1][12][18] Market Challenges - The industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, which affected operating rates and export orders, although inventory levels remained within normal limits [1][9] - Despite a lack of new capacity additions in recent years, the industry has seen a reduction in total capacity from 5.24 million tons in 2020 to 4.86 million tons in 2025, as older and smaller enterprises exit the market [3][4] Future Outlook - The viscose staple fiber industry is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions, increased procurement activity, and lower raw material costs [13] - New capacity additions are limited in the near term, with significant new projects not expected until 2027, which may provide support for pricing in the interim [14] - The overall cellulose fiber industry is projected to perform well in 2024, with high operating rates and low inventory levels, similar to the bullish market conditions seen in 2016-2017 [8] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like Sateri and Zhongtai are expected to adopt different pricing strategies, with Sateri maintaining a conservative approach while others may pursue more aggressive pricing to capture market share [20][21] - The average gross profit margin in the viscose staple fiber industry is around 400-500 yuan per ton, with leading firms achieving significantly higher margins due to their operational efficiencies and product differentiation [17][18] Conclusion - The viscose staple fiber industry is characterized by a strong demand outlook, improving market dynamics, and a favorable pricing environment, despite facing some short-term challenges related to tariffs and capacity constraints [1][13][19]