中国房地产-7 月房价降幅略有扩大，挂牌量增多且销售疲软China Property-Home Price Decline Widens Slightly in July amid Higher Listings and Weaker Sales

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Date: August 3, 2025 - Key Focus: Home price trends, sales performance, and market sentiment in the Chinese property sector Key Points Home Price Trends - Secondary home prices in major cities experienced a slight decline in July, with a month-on-month (m-m) drop of 1.1% and a year-on-year (y-y) decrease of 9.8% across approximately 50 tracked cities [2][15] - 87% of the cities reported m-m price decreases, slightly better than the 93% recorded in June [2][17] - Secondary listing prices fell by 0.5% m-m in July, with 55% of cities showing downward adjustments [2][16][18] Sales Performance - Total listings increased by 0.6% m-m in July, with 76% of cities reporting increases, compared to 71% in June [3] - New secondary listings softened by 5% m-m, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [3] - Visitations to agent shops dropped by 7% m-m but increased by 20% y-y, suggesting seasonal trends affecting market engagement [4][19] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting in July showed little focus on the property industry, indicating a muted policy response until significant price declines are observed [5] - High inventory levels in both primary and secondary markets, coupled with softening sales, are likely to maintain a cautious sentiment among residents regarding home prices [5] - Expectations for home sales in the second half of the year remain weak, with potential further declines in prices anticipated [5] Investment Recommendations - A defensive and selective investment approach is advised due to weakening leading indicators affecting developers' sales, margins, and liquidity [6] - Suggested stocks include: - Consumption beneficiaries: CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) - High-dividend-yield plays: C&D (1908.HK) and Greentown Management (9979.HK) [6] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the competitive pricing of secondary home sales, which may gain market share due to fewer new primary home launches [4] - Analysts maintain a cautious view on the property market, emphasizing the need for quality investments amidst ongoing challenges [6] Conclusion The Chinese property market is currently facing significant challenges, with declining home prices and weak sales performance. Investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy, focusing on quality companies that can weather the current market conditions.