美国股票策略 -这轮新牛市该暂停了吗？US Equity Strategy -Weekly Warm-up Time for a Pause in This New Bull Market

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the US Equity Market and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the S&P 500 and broader economic indicators affecting equities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. V-Shaped Recovery in EPS Revisions: The recent bullish sentiment in the market is attributed to a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share (EPS) revisions breadth, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations since April 2025 [4][6][10]. 2. Labor Market Weakness: A weaker labor report suggests potential consolidation in the market, with the labor data being a lagging indicator that may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider rate cuts if the trend continues [4][9][29]. 3. Expectations for Fed Actions: The bond market is pricing an 88% chance of a Fed cut in September, indicating that the market anticipates a dovish shift in monetary policy due to deteriorating labor data [9][29]. 4. Inflation Concerns: Tariff-related inflation is expected to impact growth data, which could delay Fed rate cuts, leading to potential corrections in equity markets [4][25][30]. 5. Bull Market Dynamics: The current bull market, which is only four months old, is expected to experience pullbacks, particularly in the seasonally weak third quarter [4][26][28]. 6. Positive 12-Month Outlook: Despite near-term risks, there is a higher conviction in a bullish 12-month outlook driven by better earnings and cash flow growth, aided by factors such as AI adoption and pent-up demand [5][24][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. Government Hiring Impact: Government hiring has masked underlying weaknesses in the private labor market, which may lead to a more significant rise in unemployment and could influence Fed actions [21][27]. 2. Sector-Specific Risks: The impact of tariffs is seen as idiosyncratic, affecting consumer goods more than industrials, where companies may have better pricing power [25][30]. 3. Global Money Supply Trends: A deceleration in the global money supply rate of change could weigh on risk assets, particularly if the dollar strengthens [33][34]. 4. Earnings Revisions Breadth: The sharp rebound in earnings revisions breadth may face challenges in maintaining momentum, which could lead to short-term stock price pressures [34][35]. 5. AI Adoption Theme: Companies that are significant adopters of AI are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, with a focus on their materiality to the investment thesis [40][41]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism in the equity markets, with a focus on monitoring labor data and inflation trends as key indicators for future Fed actions and market performance. The potential for a correction exists, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural growth drivers.