如何看待非农“爆冷”？ 新一轮关税加剧市场担忧、中美贸易谈判与地缘局势

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on the labor market, inflation, and the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations with China. [1][6][17] Key Points and Arguments 1. Labor Market Data Revision: The U.S. labor market data was significantly revised downwards, with July's job additions at 73,000 and a downward revision of 258,000 for the previous two months, leading to an average of only 35,000 jobs added over the last three months, the largest downward revision in decades. [2][3] 2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation despite the rate remaining relatively stable compared to last year. [2][3] 3. GDP Growth: The second quarter GDP growth rate was 3%, consistent with last year, but the internal demand growth rate fell to 1.2%, down from 2.4% last year, indicating weakening demand. [5] 4. Impact of Tariffs: New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised the effective tax rate from 10% to 20.5%, leading to increased inflationary pressures as companies may pass on costs to consumers. [11][12] 5. Inflation Expectations: Structural inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year, driven by core commodity price increases due to tariffs, while rent and service prices remain moderate. [13] 6. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's downturn and inflation pressures, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 40% to 88%. [9][16] 7. Trade Negotiations with China: Current U.S.-China trade negotiations have not yielded substantial results, with ongoing challenges related to market access, energy purchases, and investment. [17][24] 8. Sector-Specific Impacts: Different sectors are affected variably by tariffs; technology companies are performing well, while manufacturing firms like General Motors and Ford are experiencing losses. [14][15] 9. Geopolitical Factors: The complexity of U.S.-China relations is compounded by geopolitical factors, including the U.S. stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, which may further complicate trade negotiations. [24][25] Other Important but Overlooked Content - Labor Participation Rate: The labor participation rate has decreased from 62.7% last year to 62.2% this year, indicating a decline in labor supply, particularly among foreign-born populations. [3][4] - Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious due to increased geopolitical risks and seasonal factors, with August and September typically being weaker months for the stock market. [26][27] - Potential Cooperation Areas: There are suggestions for exploring more cooperative areas between the U.S. and China, such as increased purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by China, although feasibility remains uncertain. [20][21]