地平线机器人_2025 年上半年预览_J6 芯片产能提升：朝着自动驾驶功能推进，保障未来收入增长；买入-Horizon Robotics (9660.HK)_ 1H25 preview_ J6 chips ramp up; toward AD functions securing revenues growth ahead; Buy (on CL)

Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) - Industry: Automotive technology, specifically focusing on autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) Key Financial Projections - 1H25 Revenue Growth: Expected to grow 58% YoY to Rmb1.5 billion, driven by J6 series chip deliveries [1][2] - Segment Revenue Breakdown: - Auto product revenues: Rmb708 million (+218% YoY) - Licenses, services, and others: Rmb768 million (+8% YoY) [2] - Gross Margin: Projected to decline to 65% in 1H25 from 79% in 1H24, with gross profits maintaining a 30% YoY growth to Rmb960 million [2][12] - Operating Losses: Anticipated operating loss of Rmb1.4 billion in 1H25, compared to Rmb1.1 billion in 1H24 [2][12] Product Developments - J6 Series Chips: Introduction of J6B (entry-level) and J6P (high computing) chips to enhance sales volume [1][2] - Horizon SuperDrive (HSD): Integrated software/hardware solutions for urban NOA features set to begin mass shipment, expected to increase vehicle content value [1][3][7] Market Position and Strategy - Market Share: Anticipated growth in ADAS/AD market share from 2% in 2021 to 9% by 2025E, with significant revenue contributions from AD chips [17] - Competitive Advantage: Integration of software and hardware to enhance performance and build a competitive moat [7] Earnings Revisions and Valuation - Earnings Revisions: EPS estimates for 2025-30E revised down due to margin dilution from growing chip business, with net income projections adjusted to -Rmb2.7 billion in 2025E [12][23] - Target Price: Reduced 12-month target price to HK$13.13, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.0x [14][23] Risks and Challenges - Key Risks: - Increased competition and pricing pressure in the auto supply chain - Slower product mix upgrades towards AD - Expansion challenges in the customer base - Supply chain risks due to geopolitical tensions [24] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Maintain a "Buy" rating on Horizon Robotics, with a significant upside potential based on projected revenue growth and market expansion [1][25]