美国_就业增长低于预期，前几个月数据大幅下修；失业率上升-USA_ Payroll Growth Below Expectations and Revised Sharply Lower in Prior Months; Unemployment Rate Rises

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. labor market, specifically analyzing nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, and wage growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Nonfarm Payroll Growth: - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, which was below expectations. - Revisions for previous months showed a downward adjustment of 133,000 for June (revised to 14,000) and 125,000 for May (revised to 19,000), totaling a cumulative revision of 258,000 across both months [1][3][5]. 2. Sector Contributions: - The cumulative revision was nearly evenly distributed between public and private sectors, with state and local government education accounting for most of the public sector revision (-109,000) [3][5]. - In July, job growth was strongest in healthcare (+73,000), retail trade (+16,000), and finance (+15,000), while the weakest sectors included professional and business services (-14,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-11,000), and government (-10,000) [5][6]. 3. Unemployment Rate: - The unemployment rate rose by 0.13 percentage points to 4.25%, reflecting a decline in employment by 260,000 and a decrease in the labor force size by 38,000 [6][8]. - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, indicating a decline in both foreign-born and native-born participation rates [6]. 4. Wage Growth: - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.33% month-over-month in July, aligning with consensus expectations. Year-over-year growth rose by 0.20 percentage points to 3.91% [7]. - Sectors with the largest wage increases included retail trade (+1.2%), financial activities (+0.5%), and professional and business services (+0.4%), while utilities (-0.3%) and nondurable goods (-0.2%) saw the slowest growth [7]. 5. Underlying Job Growth Estimate: - The estimated underlying pace of job growth, based on payroll and household surveys, is now at just 28,000 [8]. Additional Important Insights - The payrolls diffusion index increased in June (+4.0 points to 51.2) but remained unchanged on a three-month average basis at 46.8, significantly below the average of 56.5 in Q4 2019 [5]. - Employment in industries sensitive to immigration policy changes saw a decline of 4,000 on a three-month average basis through June [9]. - The U6 underemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%, and the job-finding rate for unemployed workers decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 26.8% in July [6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state of the U.S. labor market, highlighting key trends and potential implications for investors and policymakers.