基本金属供需追踪-中国铜需求回归理性-Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker

Summary of J.P. Morgan Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the base metals market, particularly copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel, with a significant emphasis on Chinese demand and supply dynamics [1][7][8][11]. Key Points Chinese Copper Demand - Chinese copper demand has shown signs of deceleration, with a consumption-weighted end-use indicator reflecting approximately 4% year-over-year (yoy) growth in June, down from higher levels in May [9]. - The apparent consumption of copper in China increased by 12% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong start to the year despite the recent slowdown [9]. - Inventory levels for copper remain low but stable, with refined copper production in June reaching 1.14 million tons, a 13% increase yoy [9]. Solar Power Capacity - Chinese solar installations peaked in May with 92.4 GW added, but fell sharply to 14.4 GW in June, a 36% yoy decline, due to a policy shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to market-driven pricing [5][9]. - The total installations for the first half of 2025 reached 212 GW, with a revised forecast for 2025 now estimating 270-300 GW, suggesting a potential 50% contraction in the second half of the year [5][9]. Aluminum Market - China's refined aluminum production increased by approximately 1% yoy to 43.7 million tons through June [8]. - Exports of unwrought aluminum and products fell by 7% in the first half of 2025 following the removal of the export tax rebate [8]. - Apparent demand in China for aluminum grew by 1.6% yoy, although growth has been decelerating since March [8]. Zinc and Nickel Markets - Chinese imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, up nearly 50% yoy, while smelter output increased by 7% yoy in June [10]. - Nickel remains in oversupply, with global cathode inventory covering 30 days of demand. Refined nickel exports from China were 95,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 120% increase yoy [11]. Automotive Sector - Chinese passenger vehicle production increased by 14% year-to-date through June, with new energy vehicle (NEV) output growing by 40% yoy [6][9]. - The automotive sector continues to support metals demand, particularly in light of anti-involution initiatives [9]. Construction and Property Sector - Monthly property completions improved, with a yoy contraction narrowing to -2% in June from -19% in May, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [10]. - Year-to-date completions remain down 15% yoy through the first half of 2025 [10]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a policy shift towards structural rebalancing, focusing on boosting consumption without immediate additional easing measures [10]. - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with various sectors showing signs of slowing growth [10]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring trade flows, inventory levels, and utilization rates to gauge the fundamentals of the base metals market [1]. - The impact of global economic conditions and policy changes in China will continue to influence demand and supply dynamics in the base metals sector [1][10].