中国房地产-开发商遭遇 7 月销售额更大幅度下滑China Property -Developers Surprised with Deeper Sales Decline in July

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property industry, specifically the performance of major property developers in July 2025 [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Sales Decline: - Contracted sales of 30 major developers declined by 25% year-on-year (y-y) in July 2025, indicating a continued sluggishness in the market [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced deeper declines of 28% and 27% y-y, respectively, compared to -26% in June [2]. 2. Year-to-Date Performance: - Year-to-date (YTD) sales for the top 50 and top 100 developers have declined by 13% y-y as of July 2025 [2]. - The YTD sales for the 30 major developers tracked have fallen to -26% y-y [2]. 3. Sales Performance Divergence: - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers, with Jinmao and Yuexiu showing increases of 49% and 19% y-y, respectively [3]. - Conversely, several developers, including Zhongnan and Seazen, reported declines exceeding 40% y-y [3]. 4. Market Sentiment and Policy Response: - The July Politburo meeting showed little focus on the property sector, suggesting a muted policy response until housing prices decline significantly [4]. - High inventory levels in both primary and secondary markets are contributing to cautious consumer sentiment regarding home prices [4]. 5. Investment Strategy: - Analysts recommend a defensive and selective investment approach, favoring quality SOEs with good visibility, such as CR Land and CR Mixc, as well as high-dividend-yield plays like C&D International and Greentown Management [5]. Additional Important Insights - The 43% and 38% month-on-month (m-m) sales declines for the top 50 and top 100 developers in July were weaker than historical averages [2]. - The overall market is expected to remain weak in the coming months, influenced by factors such as trade negotiations and high inventory levels [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and resource availability in top-tier cities for SOEs, which contributed to their better performance compared to private developers [3].