仓储板块基本面走到哪了？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the logistics real estate market in China, focusing on high-standard warehouses and their performance metrics across various regions [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Size and Growth: The national high-standard warehouse market has reached a stock of 1.72 billion square meters, showing a slight increase of nearly 2% quarter-on-quarter [2]. 2. Rental Trends: Average rental prices have seen a decline, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [1]. The effective rental rate is approximately 21.6 [3]. 3. Occupancy Rates: Despite the decline in rental prices, occupancy rates have shown signs of recovery, with most projects experiencing an increase in occupancy rates compared to previous quarters [1][5]. 4. Regional Performance: - Top Regions: Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang are the top three provinces in terms of warehouse stock [3]. - City Rankings: Suzhou leads in stock with 14 million square meters, followed by Shanghai and Tianjin, each nearing 10 million square meters [4]. - Emerging Cities: New supply is concentrated in cities like Foshan, Guangzhou, and Wuxi, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. 5. Demand Drivers: The primary demand for warehouse space comes from e-commerce, third-party logistics, and express delivery sectors, with notable activity during promotional events like 618 [8][41]. 6. Future Supply Outlook: The anticipated supply for 2025 is projected to be around 1.3 billion square meters, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [16][39]. 7. Market Adjustments: The market is experiencing adjustments due to increased supply and changing demand dynamics, leading to a potential decline in rental prices and occupancy rates in the short term [47]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. Impact of E-commerce Promotions: The 618 shopping festival has significantly influenced warehouse demand, with many e-commerce platforms increasing their rental space during this period [9][10]. 2. Cross-Border E-commerce Trends: The logistics market is also adapting to the needs of cross-border e-commerce, particularly in the southern regions, which are seeing increased warehouse integration and layout adjustments [9][11]. 3. Market Resilience: Despite the challenges, the logistics real estate market in regions like Guangdong remains robust, with a healthy occupancy rate of around 6% [46]. 4. Long-term Adjustments: The market is expected to stabilize as supply and demand reach a more balanced state, with some regions potentially seeing a rebound in rental prices as occupancy improves [40][41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the logistics real estate market in China.