台湾ODM品牌_3 个月展望_苹果供应链进入新产品周期；人工智能服务器处于机型转换阶段；个人电脑基数高企-Taiwan ODM_Brands_ 3-month Preview_ Apple supply chain in new product cycle; AI servers in model transition; PC high base

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Taiwan ODM/Brands sector, particularly companies involved in the AI servers and PCs supply chain, including Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Gigabyte, ASUS, Inventec, Pegatron, and Compal [1][2]. Key Insights Revenue Projections - Monthly Revenue Growth: Expected average revenue growth for the 10 companies is projected at -4% in July, +2% in August, and +8% in September 2025. Apple's supply chain is anticipated to outperform with Hon Hai at +7% and Pegatron at +9% in July due to new smartphone models [3]. - Year-over-Year Revenue Growth: Projected average revenue growth for July, August, and September 2025 is +41%, +30%, and +26%, respectively. Wiwynn is expected to lead with +152% YoY growth in July [4]. Company-Specific Insights - Hon Hai: Expected to see 3Q25 revenues grow 4% YoY and 7% QoQ to NT$1,927 billion, driven by AI server ramp-up and new smartphone launches. June revenues were 3% below estimates due to declines in consumer electronics [17]. - Quanta: Anticipated 3Q25 revenues to grow 29% YoY and 9% QoQ to NT$548 billion, supported by AI server ramp-up. June revenues exceeded estimates by 9% [24]. - AVC: Expected 3Q25 revenues to grow 69% YoY and 9% QoQ to NT$32 billion, driven by rising liquid cooling penetration in ASIC AI servers. June revenues were 25% higher than estimates [38]. - Wiwynn: Projected 3Q25 revenues to grow 126% YoY to NT$221 billion, supported by demand for ASIC AI servers. June revenues were 28% higher than estimates [43]. Market Dynamics - AI Server Demand: The ramp-up of rack-level AI servers and increasing penetration of liquid cooling technologies are key drivers for revenue growth across the sector [1][4]. - Consumer Electronics Impact: The consumer electronics market is facing uncertainties due to tariff issues, affecting companies like Pegatron and Compal, which are expected to post negative revenue growth YoY [4]. Additional Considerations - Risks: Key risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI servers, weaker performance in EV solutions, and increased competition in consumer electronics [22][42]. - Earnings Revisions: Companies like Wiwynn and Quanta have seen upward revisions in revenue and net income forecasts due to better-than-expected demand for AI servers [49][28]. Conclusion - The Taiwan ODM/Brands sector is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI server technology and new product cycles, particularly in the smartphone market. However, companies must navigate challenges related to consumer electronics demand and competitive pressures.