房地产数据监测_中国大陆_挂牌价创历史新低；香港_FS 对零售持谨慎乐观态度；库存减少-Property Data Monitor_ Mainland China_ Asking price hits a new low; HK_ FS _cautiously optimistic_ on retail; inventory reduces

Summary of Conference Call on Mainland China and Hong Kong Property Markets Industry Overview - Mainland China Property Market: The asking price index for tier-1 cities has reached a new low, indicating a challenging market environment. The Centaline secondary asking price index dropped from 19.7 to 19.3, marking the lowest level since May 2024 [5] - Hong Kong Property Market: The Financial Secretary expressed a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for retail sales, suggesting potential recovery in private consumption after four quarters of decline [5] Key Insights and Data Mainland China - Sales Performance: - 60-city primary sales decreased by 14% year-over-year (Y/Y), slightly improving from a 25% decline the previous week. Compared to the four-year average, sales were 68% below, improving from a 72% decline [5] - 12-city secondary sales Y/Y decline narrowed from -6% to -4% [5] - Market Indicators: - Centaline manager confidence index improved from 46.1 to 46.6 but remains low [5] - Property agencies' web traffic index worsened to -24% Y/Y, indicating reduced interest [5] - Inventory Levels: Unsold residential inventory fell by 6% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) to 21.2K units, the lowest since Q4 2023 [5] - Price Trends: Secondary home prices rose by 1% week-over-week (W/W), the highest increase since March 2025 [5] - Top Picks: Recommended stocks include CR Land, CR Mixc, and COLI among large-cap state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and Longfor and Jinmao among high-beta names [5] Hong Kong - Retail Outlook: The Financial Secretary is optimistic about June retail sales, which could positively impact Link REIT and Wharf REIC [5] - Sales and Inventory: - Unsold residential inventory remains at 15 months, with potential supply decreasing from 105K to 101K units over the next 3-4 years [5] - Major projects like Villa Garda III sold 77% of units after an 18% cut in average selling price (ASP) [5] - Market Dynamics: - The sector rose by 4% last week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) [5] - Outperformers included NWD (+13%) and Wharf REIC (+8%), while underperformers were Champion and HKL (both -1%) [7] - Investor Sentiment: Investors showed caution regarding Vanke's potential nationalization and expressed concerns over Longfor's contracted sales and refinancing arrangements [7] Additional Important Points - Web Traffic and Appointments: The property agency web traffic index and weekend viewing appointments indicate fluctuating interest levels in the market [45][46] - Secondary Listings: The number of secondary listings on Centaline decreased from over 35K units in late May to 32K units last week, which may help stabilize home prices [5] - Tourist Arrivals: Hong Kong's tourist arrivals showed a significant increase, with 1,128,801 arrivals recorded in the last week, a 21% increase W/W [63] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call regarding the property markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.