中国经济-7 月 PMI 证实增长放缓-China Economics-July PMI Affirms Softening Growth

Key Takeaways from July PMI Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Economics sector, specifically analyzing the July PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data which indicates a softening growth trend in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Manufacturing PMI Decline: The July manufacturing PMI registered at 49.3, below expectations (Consensus: 49.7; June: 49.7), indicating broad-based weakness primarily due to weaker demand and modest production cuts linked to anti-involution measures [5][8]. 2. New Orders and Export Orders: New orders decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4, while new export orders fell by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1, reflecting a decline in demand [2][6]. 3. Production and Employment: Production softened to 50.5 (down 0.5 percentage points), and employment remained weak at 48.0, indicating challenges in labor demand [2][6]. 4. Non-Manufacturing PMI: The non-manufacturing PMI also declined to 50.1, with construction activities particularly affected, dropping 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [2][8]. 5. Price Indices: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to improve slightly to -0.2% month-on-month in July (from -0.4% in June), with a year-on-year change edging up to -3.5% [3][8]. 6. GDP Growth Outlook: Real GDP growth is projected to slip to 4.5% in Q3 (compared to 5.2% in Q2), influenced by factors such as export front-loading and limited new stimulus measures [4][8]. Additional Important Points - Consumer Sentiment: The service PMI remained subdued at 50, reflecting sluggish consumer sentiment, which may impact future demand [2][8]. - Upstream Pricing: There is a modest sequential rise in input prices (up 3.1 percentage points to 51.5), but output prices showed a milder contraction (up 2.1 percentage points to 48.3), indicating limited passthrough amid soft final demand [3][8]. - Weather Impact: Adverse weather conditions have notably affected construction activities, contributing to the decline in non-manufacturing PMI [2][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the July PMI conference call, highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, along with the implications for economic growth and consumer sentiment.