中国经济-短期无刺激政策，聚焦 10 月五年规划China Economics-No Near-term Stimulus, Eyes on Five-Year Plan in Oct

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Economics - Focus: Economic policies and outlook in China, particularly regarding stimulus measures and the upcoming Five-Year Plan Core Insights and Arguments 1. No Near-term Stimulus: The Politburo meeting decided to maintain cyclical policy continuity and will hold the 4th Plenary Session in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan [8] 2. Policy Prioritization: The focus is on targeted social welfare and urban upgrades rather than broad stimulus measures. Supply-side reforms may be adjusted but not aggressively pursued [2][3] 3. Economic Performance: The Politburo noted robust economic performance in the first half of the year despite ongoing challenges, advocating for "more optimized implementation" of fiscal and monetary policies [3] 4. Gradual Anti-involution Implementation: The tone of the meeting was measured, indicating a gradual approach to the anti-involution initiative rather than a drastic shift [4][8] 5. Support for Consumption: New policies aim to support consumption through improved social welfare provisions, although fiscal support for service consumption remains limited [5][8] 6. Urban Renewal Initiatives: Urban renewal is highlighted as a policy lever to mitigate housing market downturns and bolster infrastructure investment demand [8] Additional Important Content 1. Future Clarity on Policies: More clarity on proactive rebalancing and stimulus signals is expected in the fall, particularly as growth may slow in the coming months [2][3] 2. Supportive Capital Market Tone: The Politburo maintained a supportive stance towards the capital market, aiming to consolidate the ongoing recovery [8] 3. Focus on Social Welfare: The emphasis on social welfare aligns with broader initiatives such as fertility subsidies and free preschool education, indicating a shift towards long-term structural support [8]