化工：T800级及以上碳纤维行业近况交流

Summary of Carbon Fiber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global carbon fiber consumption in 2024 is projected to be 156,100 tons, with wind energy being the largest application area at 44,000 tons, followed by sports leisure at 28,500 tons, and aerospace/military at 26,400 tons [1][4] - In China, the total carbon fiber consumption is expected to reach 84,062 tons in 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year growth. Domestic production accounts for 67,640 tons, while imports are 16,400 tons [1][4] Key Insights - High-performance carbon fibers, such as T800 grade, require rigorous verification processes for military applications, taking approximately three years to be included in procurement lists [1][6][8] - The domestic market for T800 and above grade carbon fibers currently has a surplus supply, with companies like Guangwei and Taigang Steel being directed suppliers, while others like Zhongfu Shenying and Hengshen also provide sufficient supply [1][10] - The military and aerospace sectors in China are expected to use 9,000 tons of carbon fiber in 2024, accounting for 7.7% of the overall market [1][11] Market Dynamics - The domestic carbon fiber production capacity is around 80,000 tons, with 60,000 tons produced domestically and 20,000 tons imported. The imports are primarily due to quality standards that domestic products cannot meet [2][20] - The price of T800 grade products is approximately 300-400 RMB per kilogram, while M series high-modulus products can reach over 10,000 RMB per kilogram [1][13][14] Technological Insights - Domestic companies such as Zhongfu Shenying, Zhongjian Technology, and Guangwei Composites are capable of producing T800G and above carbon fibers, with Zhongfu Shenying being the technological leader [2][15] - The manufacturing bottleneck for M grade carbon fibers lies in the precursor production, with domestic companies lagging in the graphitization process compared to international standards [2][21] Production and Development Timeline - The development of carbon fiber products from R&D to market typically takes at least five years, involving multiple stages such as process preparation, infrastructure construction, equipment debugging, trial production, and market certification [2][25] Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for M series carbon fibers is currently low, with military demand expected to reach 10,000 tons by 2025, reflecting limited growth due to the elastic nature of military requirements [2][26][27] - Domestic manufacturers capable of producing T800 and above grade carbon fibers include Guangwei Composites, Zhongfu Shenying, Dongjian Technology, and Hongshen Technology, indicating a competitive landscape in the high-end carbon fiber market [2][28]