“反内卷”主题专家会议：MDITDI

Summary of Conference Call on TDI and MDI Market Industry Overview - Industry: TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) and MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) markets - Current Situation: Both TDI and MDI markets are experiencing supply tightness due to various factors including production halts and maintenance at key facilities [1][2][4][11] Key Points on TDI Market - Supply Tightness: TDI supply is constrained due to Covestro's force majeure and domestic factory maintenance, leading to a decrease in operating rates to 72%-73% [1][2] - Price Surge: TDI prices have increased nearly 30% since July 12, with domestic prices around 16,000 RMB/ton and expected to rise to 18,000 RMB/ton in the short term [1][4][21] - Low Downstream Inventory: Downstream companies have low inventory levels, with barrel goods holding about one month and bulk goods around half a month [1][5] - Profit Margins: TDI's profit margin is significant, with a profit of approximately 4,000 RMB per ton based on current market conditions [1][8] - Export Growth: TDI exports are projected to reach 450,000 to 500,000 tons in 2025, an 80% increase year-on-year, driven by reduced overseas capacity [1][10] Key Points on MDI Market - Global Supply and Demand: The global MDI market has a total capacity of approximately 11 million tons, with demand around 8.5 million tons, indicating a tight supply situation [11][12] - Domestic Market Balance: Domestic MDI capacity is 5.2 million tons, with demand close to 2.8-2.9 million tons, maintaining a relatively balanced supply-demand scenario [12] - Price Fluctuations: Domestic MDI prices range from 15,500 to 15,800 RMB/ton, with pure MDI priced about 1,000 RMB higher [13][19] - Impact of Trade Wars: The US-China trade war has affected MDI demand, particularly in the refrigerator and spray industries, leading to a 2%-3% loss in demand [16] Additional Insights - Future Price Trends: TDI prices are expected to continue rising, influenced by supply constraints and downstream demand capacity [4][21] - Technological Developments: New production technologies, such as urea-based methods, are being explored but face challenges in cost and market acceptance [23][24][26] - Inventory Levels: MDI inventory levels are normal, with most downstream factories maintaining about two weeks of stock [17][18] Conclusion The TDI and MDI markets are currently characterized by supply constraints and rising prices, with significant export opportunities for TDI. The MDI market remains relatively balanced but is influenced by external factors such as trade policies. Future developments in production technology may impact market dynamics, but acceptance and cost competitiveness remain key challenges.