特高压设备专家交流

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the ultra-high voltage (UHV) power transmission industry in China, discussing the current status, challenges, and future trends of UHV projects and technologies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Construction Progress and Challenges UHV construction is experiencing delays due to multiple factors, including slow approval processes, low utilization rates of existing lines (generally below 50%), adjustments in energy transition policies, long technology iteration cycles, and economic considerations. Human resources have also been diverted to new energy infrastructure projects [1][2][3]. 2. Demand for Cross-Regional Transmission Despite short-term suppression of UHV demand due to declining photovoltaic (PV) station returns, the uneven distribution of energy resources and policy direction ensure a rigid demand for cross-regional transmission. The government will continue to promote UHV network interconnections, particularly transporting energy from the western and northern regions to central and eastern load centers [1][6]. 3. Increased Proportion of Renewable Energy in New Projects The proportion of renewable energy bundled in new UHV projects is expected to increase, with a greater reliance on hydropower and other renewable sources for bundled transmission. However, thermal power remains competitive due to its stability in large-capacity power supply [1][7]. 4. Flexible DC Technology (FDC) Prospects The application of flexible DC technology is anticipated to grow significantly, with projections indicating that 60%-70% of new DC line converter stations will adopt this technology by 2030. The penetration rate of new lines is expected to exceed 80% [1][12]. 5. Cost Reduction in Key Components The cost of flexible DC converter valves is expected to decrease from approximately 5 billion yuan to around 3.5 billion yuan by 2030, primarily due to advancements in domestic production of key components like IGBT and silicon carbide materials [2][13]. 6. Supply Chain Bottlenecks The production of UHV transformers faces significant bottlenecks due to a shortage of high-end imported insulation materials, particularly T4 grade paperboard. Domestic companies are expanding capacity but still rely on expensive imports [2][21][19]. 7. Future UHV Project Plans Several UHV lines are scheduled to commence construction between late 2025 and 2026, including routes from southeastern Tibet to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and from Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [2][28][29]. 8. Impact of PV Station Returns on UHV Projects The decline in PV station returns has temporarily suppressed UHV external demand, particularly in regions like Qinghai and Gansu. However, long-term cross-regional transmission remains a necessity due to resource distribution and policy needs [6]. 9. Market Growth for Renewable Energy The renewable energy market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13%. Despite reductions in wind and solar power, hydropower and nuclear energy are expected to continue growing [7]. 10. Domestic Production and Market Dynamics Domestic brands currently supply about 5% of the UHV transformer market, with expectations for gradual increases in localization rates as new capacities come online by 2026-2027 [21][23]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The internal rate of return for some projects has decreased due to market trading developments, leading to project delays. Local financial conditions and social resistance also impact project timelines [3]. - The competitive advantage of thermal power remains significant, especially in scenarios of water scarcity, highlighting the need for a balanced energy supply system [8]. - The development of large hydropower projects, such as the Yaxia Hydropower Station, is expected to significantly enhance China's overall power generation capacity [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the UHV industry, emphasizing the interplay between technology, market dynamics, and policy influences.