中国：与美国的贸易谈判-China Trade talks with the US

Summary of the Conference Call on US-China Trade Talks Industry and Company Involved - Industry: Trade relations between the United States and China - Company: J.P. Morgan Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations Overview - The third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place in Stockholm on July 28-29, 2025, following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The meeting was described as "very constructive" but did not yield significant breakthroughs or concrete outcomes [2][3][4] Tariff Truce and Future Meetings - A tariff truce announced after the Geneva talks is set to expire on August 12, 2025, but is likely to be extended pending President Trump's approval. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a 90-day extension is a possibility, suggesting a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi in November 2025 [2][4] Economic Developments and Trade Imbalances - Discussions included updates on economic developments in both countries, efforts to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, and the implementation of previous agreements, particularly concerning China's rare earth exports to the US and US technology export controls [3][6] Tariff Rates and Projections - The US average effective tariff rate is projected to rise to 18-20%, up from 13.4% at the beginning of the year. New general tariff rates of 15% for the EU and Japan and a 20% ceiling for ASEAN were mentioned, with ongoing negotiations with Korea, India, and Taiwan [5][6] Impact on China's Economic Outlook - The outcome of trade negotiations and tariffs is crucial for China's economic outlook in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. The current tariff rate of 42% on Chinese imports is expected to remain stable, although sector-specific tariffs may increase due to ongoing investigations [6][8] Global Trade Dynamics - The US's trade negotiations with other partners could negatively impact China if higher tariffs reduce US import demand. However, if the increase in tariffs on China is smaller than those on other trading partners, the impact on Chinese imports may be less severe than anticipated [9][10] Multilateral Trade Relationships - China's trade relationships with non-US partners are becoming increasingly important as the US adopts a unilateral trade approach. There are calls for trade multilateralism, but concerns about China's manufacturing dominance complicate these efforts [10][11] Risks and Uncertainties - While the worst of the tariff shocks may be over, trade uncertainty remains a significant risk for the Chinese economy. The Chinese government's response to external uncertainties and domestic challenges will be critical [11] Other Important Content - The document includes contact information for analysts involved in the research, emphasizing the independence of the research team and the importance of compliance with regulatory standards [7][25][57]