全球云资本支出 2025 年预计同比增长 56%，2026 年有望实现 30% 以上增长-US Technology North America Global Cloud Capex Now Tracking to +56% Y Y in 2025, With Upside to 30%+ Growth in 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Global Cloud Capital Expenditure (Capex) in the US Technology sector, particularly among the largest global hyperscalers. Core Insights and Arguments 1. 2025 Cloud Capex Growth: - Global Cloud Capex is projected to reach $445 billion in 2025, reflecting a 56% year-over-year (Y/Y) growth, which is 12 percentage points higher than previous estimates [3][6][24]. - The increase is primarily driven by positive revisions from major companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, which account for over 90% of the upward revision [3][6]. 2. 2026 Preliminary Consensus: - The preliminary consensus for 2026 Cloud Capex is estimated at $518 billion, indicating a 16% Y/Y growth, but with a potential upward bias suggesting growth could exceed 30% [3][6][16]. 3. Capital Intensity: - Cloud Capex is expected to account for 18.4% of revenue in 2025, marking a 5 percentage point increase Y/Y and setting a new record [3][13]. 4. Major Contributors to Growth: - The largest contributors to the Y/Y growth in 2025 Capex include Amazon (+$34.3 billion), Alphabet (+$32.2 billion), Meta (+$31.5 billion), and Microsoft (+$25.3 billion), collectively accounting for 77% of the growth [3][6]. 5. Future Spending Trends: - The call highlights a trend of increasing capital expenditures directed towards AI infrastructure to address compute shortages and support complex workloads, with executives expressing confidence in the returns from these investments [24][25]. 6. Non-GPU/ASIC Spending: - For 2025, non-GPU/ASIC cloud capex is tracking to 56-66% Y/Y growth, while for 2026, estimates vary significantly, with consensus suggesting only 3% Y/Y growth, while Morgan Stanley's estimates imply 27% Y/Y growth [26][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. Revisions in Capex Estimates: - Consensus estimates for 2025 Capex have been revised upwards by more than 50% (or $150 billion) over the past year, indicating a trend of conservative initial forecasts [20][23]. 2. Monthly Token Processing Growth: - Monthly tokens processed by major cloud service providers indicate a growing demand for AI inference, suggesting robust growth in cloud services [21][22]. 3. Investment in Short-lived Assets: - Companies like Microsoft and Meta are expected to allocate a growing portion of their capital expenditures towards short-lived assets such as CPU/GPU servers and networking equipment [24][25]. 4. Potential for Further Revisions: - There is an expectation that both consensus and Morgan Stanley's 2026 Capex estimates may trend higher in the coming months due to ongoing strength in AI infrastructure spending [20][24]. 5. Revenue Exposure to Cloud Capex: - A detailed analysis of over 50 technology companies shows an average revenue exposure of 38% to cloud capex, highlighting the significant impact of cloud spending on the broader technology sector [32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current and future landscape of cloud capital expenditures among major technology companies.