富途 - 2025 年第二季度预览：可能再创季度利润新高-Futu Holdings Ltd-2Q25 Preview Likely another record high quarterly profit

Summary of Futu Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Futu Holdings Ltd - Industry: Financial Services, specifically in brokerage and crypto trading - Market Cap: HK$155,698 million - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: US$160.00, representing a 13% upside from the current price of US$141.67 as of August 1, 2025 [6][20] Key Financial Insights - 2Q25 Profit Forecast: Expected to rise approximately 14% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to HK$2.43 billion, which is a 101% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1][8] - Client Asset Inflows: Forecasted at HK$80 billion for 2Q25, with total client assets expected to reach HK$934 billion, reflecting a 61.3% YoY increase and a 12.6% QoQ increase [8][18] - Full-Year Profit Estimate: FY25 profit raised by 8% to HK$7.8 billion, slightly conservative compared to buy-side expectations of HK$8 billion [3][8] Market Dynamics - Stock Correction: Futu's stock has pulled back 16% since July 23, attributed to higher market beta and concerns over market share loss due to onshore investor tax [4][12] - Crypto Trading Growth: Positive traction in crypto offerings, with the average daily trading volume (ADV) of Hashkey, a connected crypto exchange, rising 52% sequentially in 3Q to US$79 million [9][10] Strategic Outlook - Crypto Business Potential: The crypto segment is expected to provide meaningful revenue uplift in the medium term, with a projected 18% revenue increase by 2027 from crypto trading and staking [10][20] - Valuation Upside: Potential for higher valuation multiples due to the crypto business, with a bull case scenario suggesting a price target of US$208 based on a 43% profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027 [11][20] Risks and Considerations - Onshore Tax Concerns: The collection of onshore residents' overseas income tax is expected to become a norm, but concerns about market share loss are viewed as overdone [12][20] - Market Uncertainty: Continued market uncertainty is factored into the 2H25 profit outlook, despite strong client asset growth and interest income resilience [3][8] Additional Insights - Client Growth: Anticipated addition of 190,000 new funded accounts in 2Q25, which is strong compared to the past four-quarter average [8][18] - Trading Volume: Total trading volume expected to reach HK$3.61 trillion in 2Q25, a 122.9% increase YoY [18] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Futu Holdings Ltd, highlighting its financial performance, market dynamics, strategic outlook, and associated risks.