全球每周 - 美国企业盈利超预期，而全球市场下跌-Global Weekly Kickstart_ US earnings beat estimates while global markets down

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global markets experienced a downturn last week, primarily influenced by tariff news and weaker macroeconomic data, with Europe declining over 4% [1] - The cyclical sectors underperformed compared to defensive sectors globally, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Company Earnings Insights - Approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 earnings, with 63% exceeding consensus EPS forecasts, marking one of the highest rates of positive earnings surprises in 25 years [5] - The frequency of positive surprises is attributed to a low bar set at the beginning of the quarter, resulting in smaller-than-average rewards for stocks with EPS beats [6] - US companies expressed confidence in managing tariff impacts on profits during earnings calls, although cost pressures may rise in the second half of 2025, posing risks to real revenue growth [6] - The "Magnificent 7" tech companies reported a 26% year-on-year earnings growth in Q2, contrasting with a mere 4% growth for the remaining S&P 493 constituents, which is expected to support index earnings [6] Macroeconomic Indicators - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases include the ISM services index in the US, final PMI and industrial production numbers in Europe, and trade data in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines [2][3] - Key policy events include the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting, which could influence market dynamics [2] Market Performance Metrics - The report highlights the performance of various global indices, with the MSCI indices showing mixed results over different time frames [11] - The report also provides forecasts for GDP growth across major economies, with the US projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, while Japan and the Euro area are expected to grow by 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively [18] Sector Performance - The report details sector performance across regions, indicating that sectors such as utilities and communication services have shown resilience, while materials and industrials have underperformed [36] - Year-to-date sector performance shows significant variances, with some sectors like consumer staples and healthcare performing better than others [38] Risk and Sentiment Indicators - The report includes various risk and sentiment indicators, suggesting a cautious market outlook with a current GS Bull/Bear Market Indicator at 70%, indicating a relatively high level of caution among investors [29] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with mixed earnings results and macroeconomic indicators suggesting potential volatility ahead. Investors are advised to consider these factors in their decision-making processes [8]